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She reportedly told confidants that she plans to transition into the private sector rather than continue her career in Washington. A spokesperson for Ernst could not be reached for further comment.
Democrat Field Already Crowding the Race
Democrats wasted no time jumping into the race even before Ernst’s announcement. State Sen. Zach Wahls, state Rep. Josh Turek, and Des Moines School Board chairwoman Jackie Norris have already declared their candidacies. Their entrance set up what would have been a major showdown, especially as recent polling suggested Ernst was slipping in head-to-head matchups.
According to campaign polling released by Wahls, Ernst held just a one-point edge over him, 43-42. Another portion of the poll even showed Wahls with a two-point lead. Against the other Democratic hopefuls, however, Ernst still maintained narrow advantages.
A Fighter Until the End
Despite the poll numbers and persistent questions about her future, Ernst remained defiant in public. Speaking to the Westside Conservative Club, she had a message for Democrats lining up to take her place:
“Every day we get a new Democratic member of the House or Senate that decides to run for this Senate seat — bring it on,” Ernst declared. “Bring it on, folks. Because I tell you, at the end of the day, Iowa is going to be red.”
That fighting spirit made Ernst a favorite among grassroots conservatives and a national figure in Republican politics. Back in 2016, President Donald Trump even considered her as a possible running mate before she decided against joining the ticket.
Pressure From the White House
The Biden administration had quietly hoped Ernst would run again, knowing the Iowa seat would be tougher to flip without an entrenched incumbent. But Ernst’s choice now forces Democrats to pour resources into a state that has leaned red in recent cycles.
Republicans, meanwhile, see the open seat as a chance to elevate fresh leadership while still keeping the state firmly in their column.
More Republican Exits on the Horizon
Ernst is not alone in heading for the exit. Several other Republicans have also indicated they are done with Washington. North Carolina’s Thom Tillis, Alabama’s Tommy Tuberville, and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky are all preparing to step aside.
Tennessee’s Marsha Blackburn has her sights set on a run for governor next year, though her Senate term extends until 2030.
The Legacy of Joni Ernst
Before her Senate career, Ernst served in local government and made a name for herself as a conservative willing to take on entrenched interests. Her rise from Iowa politics to national prominence was swift, capped by her ascent into Senate leadership.
By choosing to leave on her own terms, Ernst avoids the kind of bitter, drawn-out fight many incumbents face in today’s political climate. For Republicans, her retirement is both a moment of transition and a reminder that Iowa has become a stronghold for the party.
The 2026 Senate race in Iowa is now officially one of the top contests to watch. Democrats believe they smell an opening, but Republicans insist the seat will stay red. Ernst herself summed it up best: “Iowa is going to be red.”
