Rubio has opened a sizable lead among respondents to the publication’s latest unofficial survey. The secretary of state captured 46.1% of the vote during the week of Aug. 10-16, according to the poll’s reported results.
That represented a 2.8-point increase from the previous week.
Vance, meanwhile, remained in second place with 24.3%, gaining 2.4 points from the prior survey. Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie was third among the leading contenders at 12.7%, although his support fell 3.9 points.
The numbers are eye-catching, but they come with an important qualification.
The Western Journal describes its straw poll as a non-scientific survey. It should therefore not be treated as a conventional national poll or as a definitive measure of Republican voters nationwide. Instead, the results offer a snapshot of sentiment among people who participated in the publication’s weekly survey.
Even with that limitation, Rubio’s rise is notable.
The secretary of state has increasingly found himself at the center of speculation about the Republican Party’s post-Trump future. Vance, meanwhile, has long been viewed as one of the most natural successors to President Donald Trump, particularly because he currently occupies the vice presidency.
That has created an unusual dynamic.
Rather than a straightforward race between a clear frontrunner and a challenger, the emerging 2028 picture could eventually involve two prominent Trump allies competing for the party’s nomination — or potentially joining forces on the same ticket.
Trump himself has fueled that possibility.
The president has previously suggested that a Vance-Rubio combination could be formidable. At the same time, reports in recent weeks have indicated that Trump has privately spoken favorably about Vance succeeding him.
According to reporting first published by The Washington Post and subsequently confirmed by a source to Fox News, Trump told donors during a private Oval Office gathering, “At the end of the day, we need to elect JD.”
That remark immediately intensified speculation that Trump may ultimately favor Vance for the Republican nomination.
But there is a major caveat.
Trump has not formally endorsed Vance for 2028.
When reporters later questioned him about the report, Trump pushed back on the idea that his private comments represented an official decision.
“I think he’s great, but we’re way too early to even be thinking about that,” Trump said.
That distinction could prove important.
Trump has a long history of keeping political observers guessing, and Republicans familiar with his thinking have cautioned against interpreting every private comment as a final decision.
One Republican strategist described the president’s approach bluntly, saying Trump could praise Vance one day and ask supporters about Rubio the next.
“That’s DJT. He will say ‘it’s JD’ and then he’ll say to someone, ‘Who do you like between Marco and JD?’ It’s just how DJT is,” the strategist said.
The same source added that Trump has been telling donors and others that the future could belong to Vance, while emphasizing that nothing becomes certain until Trump makes a public endorsement.
“He’s been saying this s*** to donors and others that it’s going to be JD for a while, but with DJT nothing’s ever for sure until he makes a public endorsement,” the source said.
That uncertainty leaves plenty of room for the political landscape to change.
The 2026 midterm elections could be particularly important. Republican candidates will have to defend the party’s record, while the administration’s successes and setbacks could influence which potential successor has the strongest political position.
A former senior Trump White House official similarly warned that no final decision has been made.
“Nothing is set in stone. I think [Trump’s] going to want to see how the midterms turn out, see what the money landscape looks like before making an actual endorsement,” the former official said.
The source also questioned whether the president’s eventual preference can be predicted with confidence.
“The funny thing is you have all of these ‘insiders’ claiming to know exactly what the president will do, but I’d say that’s all up in the air until the president actually tweets it out,” the former official continued.
There is another fascinating possibility: a ticket featuring both Vance and Rubio.
Trump has reportedly remained interested in such a combination, although questions remain over whether Rubio would want to pursue the vice presidency if Vance becomes the Republican nominee.
That could ultimately be the biggest question surrounding the emerging Republican succession battle.
For now, Rubio has momentum in at least one influential conservative straw poll, while Vance retains the advantage of being the sitting vice president and reportedly has Trump’s private encouragement.
The race, however, is nowhere near settled.
If anything, the latest developments demonstrate how unpredictable the Republican field could become. Rubio’s surge shows that conservative voters are not necessarily united behind one successor, while Trump’s private comments about Vance suggest the vice president remains central to the party’s future.
For Republicans watching the road to 2028, the message is clear: The battle has started early, but the final lineup is still anyone’s guess.
