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Latino voters in Arizona have been influential in past elections, often tipping the balance toward Democrats. But with this current polling data, Harris’s grip on this vital group is slipping. If this trend continues, it may open the door for Trump to gain an upper hand in a state where he has already been closing the gap.
The situation in Nevada is even more concerning for Harris and her party. Biden won the state’s Hispanic vote by a commanding 26-point margin in 2020, but Harris now leads by only one point—a staggering 25-point drop. This massive loss of support could prove disastrous in a state that Biden won by only two percentage points overall.
Nevada’s Hispanic electorate makes up approximately 20% of the voting population, making their support indispensable for any Democratic win. The razor-thin margin in this year’s polling indicates that Harris is in serious trouble, as even a small shift in Latino voter turnout could hand the state to Trump.
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“This year, however, Harris leads by just one point—a massive 25-point drop,” the report states. If Harris cannot recover her support among Nevada’s Hispanic voters, the state, which has been a reliable Democratic stronghold, could flip red, dealing a devastating blow to her campaign.
Both Arizona and Nevada are critical battlegrounds that could determine the outcome of the 2024 election. These states are not solidly aligned with either party, meaning that their electoral votes are highly sought after. Any shift in voter sentiment could sway the election, and with Hispanic voters making up such a significant portion of the electorate in both states, their importance cannot be overstated.
In recent elections, Arizona and Nevada have been decided by incredibly tight margins. Biden won Arizona by a mere 0.3%, while his margin in Nevada was 2.4%. Given how close these races have been, the drop in support for Harris among Hispanic voters could easily be the difference between victory and defeat.
The poll underscores a larger problem for Harris: her struggle to maintain the coalition that helped Biden secure the presidency in 2020. Hispanic voters have long been considered the Democratic Party’s “sleeping giant,” a key demographic that could either bolster or undermine the party’s chances of winning elections.
However, the latest polling numbers suggest that Harris is failing to resonate with this crucial group. The loss of Latino support is particularly troubling in Nevada, a state that has been a reliable Democratic win in recent years but is now at risk of flipping red.
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In the bigger picture, these swing states are part of a larger trend. The same CNN poll shows that Trump is now leading in six out of seven key states that were essential to Biden’s victory in 2020. In Arizona, Trump is ahead by 3.5 points, and in Georgia, another state that flipped blue in the last election, Trump leads by 3.4 points, according to Atlas Intel.
If Harris cannot turn the tide and regain the support of Hispanic voters, her path to victory in 2024 looks increasingly difficult. The declines in Arizona and Nevada should serve as a wake-up call for Democrats, who will need to re-engage this vital demographic to have any hope of winning the presidency again.
Harris’s dwindling support among Latinos, particularly in critical swing states, may become the Achilles’ heel of her campaign. If the current trend holds, it could spell disaster for her chances in the upcoming election, putting Trump in a stronger position than many expected.