That contrast is becoming one of the most interesting features of the campaign: prediction markets currently show Acton with a meaningful edge, while polling has described a contest that remains within the margin of error.
Acton is not a newcomer to Ohio politics. Before launching her gubernatorial campaign, she served as director of the Ohio Department of Health under Republican Gov. Mike DeWine and became one of the most recognizable public officials in the state during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Her pandemic record is now certain to remain part of the 2026 campaign.
In March 2020, Acton issued a stay-at-home order that required many nonessential businesses to close. A subsequent legal challenge involving gyms resulted in a ruling against enforcement of the orders, with the judge criticizing the way the authority had been exercised. ABC News reported at the time that Acton faced criticism over the restrictions even as DeWine defended her role in the administration’s pandemic response.
Supporters of Acton have portrayed her pandemic leadership as an example of aggressive public-health action during an unprecedented crisis. Critics, meanwhile, have continued to point to the economic restrictions and government authority exercised during that period as reasons to oppose her return to public office. Those competing interpretations are likely to feature heavily in the governor’s race.
Another issue is the candidates’ willingness to debate.
Ramaswamy has accepted invitations for televised debates, while Acton has declined at least two invitations. PBS reported in September that Ramaswamy had accepted invitations from CNN and Cincinnati television station WLWT, while Acton’s campaign said it did not want to provide Ramaswamy a platform to make what it described as false claims about her and her family.
That decision has itself become a campaign issue.
Ramaswamy and his allies can argue that voters deserve an opportunity to hear the candidates directly challenge one another. Acton’s campaign has defended its decision on the grounds that it does not want to amplify attacks it considers misleading.
The race was also jolted earlier this month by a security incident at the Canfield Fair.
On Sept. 6, 38-year-old Patrick Havas was arrested after authorities said he pushed through a crowd toward Acton while carrying two pistols and a Taser. Several people were knocked over during the incident. Acton was not injured, and her security detail intervened before Havas reached her.
However, some details surrounding the incident have been more complicated than the initial descriptions suggested.
According to prosecutors, Havas told authorities that he intended to ask Acton questions. Authorities said he never removed or brandished the firearms, and investigators reportedly found no threats against Acton on his cellphone. Havas pleaded not guilty to the charges.
Another controversy concerns a 2019 police report involving Acton that surfaced during the campaign.
According to the report, police responded to Acton’s Bexley home following a domestic dispute. The report states that Acton told officers she had consumed alcohol and taken an unspecified amount of prescription medication during the incident. She also reportedly said she had considered leaving but was persuaded not to drive.
Those details have become part of the opposition’s effort to scrutinize Acton’s record, although the incident itself predates her gubernatorial campaign by several years.
Meanwhile, Ramaswamy is facing his own political headwinds. His candidacy carries the explicit backing of Trump, but the race has not developed into the kind of easy Republican contest that some might have expected from Ohio’s recent presidential voting history.
The result is a campaign that is increasingly difficult to reduce to a simple red-versus-blue contest.
Prediction markets currently put Acton ahead. Recent polling, however, shows a race separated by only a few percentage points. And with weeks still remaining before Election Day, both candidates have opportunities to change the trajectory of the contest.
For Republicans, the central question is whether Ramaswamy can translate Ohio’s strong recent Republican presidential performance into a winning gubernatorial coalition.
For Democrats, the challenge is whether Acton can turn her current market position and narrow polling advantage into enough support across the state to capture an open governor’s seat.
The betting markets have certainly changed the conversation.
But they are not election results.
With Acton and Ramaswamy separated by only a few points in recent polling, Ohio’s governor’s race remains a closely watched contest—and the final weeks of the campaign could prove decisive.
