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Herrera, 30, a gun rights activist and YouTuber, is viewed as the front-runner. He holds 57 percent and 61 percent chances to win on Polymarket and Kalshi, respectively. A third Republican contender, Keith Barton, has gained little traction, rarely exceeding one percent in polling or trading platforms.
Despite the controversy, Gonzales retains high-profile backing. Former President Donald Trump endorsed him last December on Truth Social, praising Gonzales as a “terrific representative” who champions military, veterans, economic growth, tax cuts, border security, and Second Amendment rights.
Gonzales, often labeled a “RINO” by the GOP base, has shifted to align more closely with Trump’s agenda. He recently refrained from condemning a racially charged video shared by Trump during a live television interview, further signaling his loyalty to the former president’s positions.

Text messages from Santos-Aviles, published by the Express-News, confirm the affair. In one, she wrote directly to colleagues, “I had [an] affair with our boss,” underscoring the personal and political entanglements that plagued the office.
The former staffer who raised alarms about Santos-Aviles’ mental state has since departed Gonzales’ office, explaining he could no longer support the congressman’s “message and his ideals.” The departure underscores ongoing tensions within the team over how the affair was handled.
Sources indicate that Gonzales’ inner circle knew of the relationship well before Santos-Aviles’ death. The Express-News reported that staff members were aware as early as 2024, highlighting how entrenched the issue became before it reached public scrutiny.
Adrian Aviles, Santos-Aviles’ husband, is represented by attorney Bobby Barrera, who confirmed that the affair “was not a secret among the staff.” Barrera stated, “It’s common knowledge. The staff was clearly aware this event was occurring,” though he did not assert that the affair directly caused her death.
Following Santos-Aviles’ suicide, rumors about the relationship escalated. A Gonzales spokesperson criticized media reporting on the matter, labeling the coverage as the work of “political bottom feeders” attempting to “distort” the tragic circumstances surrounding her death.
Gonzales is now vying for a fourth term in Congress, making the upcoming GOP primary one of the most closely watched intraparty battles in Texas. With damaging headlines and internal party scrutiny, the incumbent faces a high-stakes fight to maintain his seat amid an increasingly volatile political landscape.




