With just days until Americans head to the polls, a new Monmouth University survey reveals a close battle in Pennsylvania, where former President Donald Trump has gained momentum, narrowing the gap in a state that could be crucial to the 2024 presidential outcome. This latest poll marks a three-point shift in Trump’s favor since last month, with both Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris now tied at 42% among registered voters.
In Pennsylvania’s high-stakes contest, both candidates face distinct challenges and voter dynamics. Harris’s success relies on mobilizing high-propensity voters—those who consistently show up to vote. Meanwhile, Trump’s strategy hinges on activating low-propensity voters, individuals who historically vote at lower rates but whose participation could be game-changing if he can inspire them to turn out. Trump holds a solid lead among white voters without college degrees, where he garners 60% to Harris’s 35%. On the flip side, Harris has a significant edge among white college-educated voters, capturing 58% to Trump’s 37%, and she also sees strong support from Black, Hispanic, and other minority groups, with 62% favoring her versus 25% for Trump.
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The survey shows Pennsylvania’s regional divides are similar to those seen in 2020, with Trump enjoying solid backing in the western and central parts of the state, referred to as “Trump country.” This area accounts for roughly 40% of the state’s vote and is a critical zone for Trump, who currently holds 58% support there, compared to Harris’s 37%. Although this region heavily supported him in 2020 with 63% of the vote, he remains a force here. Meanwhile, Harris leads in the southeastern region, including Philadelphia and the surrounding suburbs, where she holds 58% of support, though slightly lower than Biden’s 66% in the same area in 2020. Given that southeastern Pennsylvania accounts for about a third of the total state vote, it’s a region both campaigns are heavily targeting as Election Day approaches.
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