“He’s also the commander in chief, so he’s the person who determines… when conflicts start and when they stop,” Vance said.
Vance’s comments provide a glimpse into how the administration is viewing the conflict at this stage. Rather than describing the current situation as a continuation of the opening offensive, he divided the war into two broader phases.
“There are really two phases to this thing, and the first phase is done,” Vance said.
According to Vance, the initial objective was to significantly damage Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, conventional military capabilities and ability to project power throughout the Middle East.
The second phase is considerably different.
The administration now says its focus is on preventing Tehran from rebuilding the capabilities that Washington says were destroyed or severely degraded during the earlier fighting, while simultaneously attempting to stabilize the wider region.
That mission remains complicated by the continuing crisis around the Strait of Hormuz.
The strategic waterway remains one of the world’s most important energy corridors, and the conflict has sharply reduced commercial traffic. Reuters reported that only four commodity vessels crossed the strait on Tuesday, compared with roughly 125 large commercial vessels per day before the war began.
The shipping figures come with an important caveat. Some vessels may turn off their tracking systems because of security concerns, meaning publicly available data does not necessarily capture every ship moving through the waterway.
Even so, the decline in visible traffic demonstrates how severely the conflict has disrupted one of the world’s key commercial routes.
The Strait of Hormuz traditionally carries roughly one-fifth of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas shipments, making any prolonged disruption there a major concern for international energy markets. Reuters has reported that shipping through the waterway has remained well below prewar levels amid continued military tensions.
The United States has spent months conducting maritime security operations in and around the strait, including efforts to clear mines and protect commercial traffic.
Vance has also acknowledged that Americans are becoming increasingly impatient with the conflict.
“I certainly understand there’s some impatience from the American people, but fundamentally what’s happening now is that the United States is not engaged in aggressive operations. We’re just not.”
The administration’s description of the current military posture comes as Iranian forces continue to pose threats to shipping and U.S. interests in the region.
At the same time, the financial cost of the conflict has become increasingly difficult to ignore.
A new Congressional Budget Office analysis estimates that the Defense Department had spent approximately $38 billion on the conflict as of August 1. Depending on the intensity of continuing operations, the war could cost another $2 billion to $3 billion per month.
The CBO said those figures include expenses associated with replacing expended munitions and lost equipment, additional flying hours, military operations and increased fuel costs.
That price tag has added another layer of pressure as the administration looks toward the next stage of the conflict.
Vance has also played a role in diplomatic efforts surrounding Iran. He helped negotiate a June memorandum of understanding intended to reduce hostilities and create a framework for discussions surrounding Tehran’s nuclear program. The arrangement reduced some direct fighting but did not resolve the broader confrontation or eliminate the dangers surrounding regional shipping.
Trump, meanwhile, has repeatedly suggested that the conflict could reach a major conclusion after the November elections.
“I think the war will end immediately after the election because they can’t hold out any longer,” Trump told reporters.
The president has also predicted that oil prices will fall after the election, adding another indication that he expects the current crisis to change substantially in the months ahead.
Still, there is no publicly announced timetable guaranteeing that outcome.
It remains unclear whether the next stage will be driven primarily by diplomacy, continued military pressure, or a combination of both.
What is clear is that the administration believes the conflict has moved beyond its opening phase.
Vance’s remarks suggest that Washington’s immediate priority is no longer simply destroying Iranian military capabilities. The challenge now is preventing Tehran from rebuilding while attempting to restore stability across a region where shipping, energy markets and U.S. military operations remain deeply intertwined.
For now, the conflict continues. The Strait of Hormuz remains heavily disrupted, American forces remain deployed across the region, and Iran continues to pose security challenges.
But with Vance openly predicting a “much different phase” within months—and Trump pointing toward a possible end shortly after the November midterms—the administration is signaling that the current chapter of the Iran conflict may be approaching a significant transition.
The question now is what that next phase will look like.
