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In October, Vance drew 38% support from Republicans and 41% from independents. The latest survey shows a dip to 36% among Republicans and 33% among independents. Trump Jr. also saw a drop, falling from 26% to 20% among Republicans and from 13% to 8% among right-leaning independents.
Rubio’s growth has been notable. He jumped from 4% support among Republicans in October — trailing Ron DeSantis — to 9% today. Among independents, Rubio surged to 15%, surpassing Trump Jr., who landed at just 8% in that group.
Gender dynamics in the polling have shifted as well. Previously, Vance performed better with women than men, capturing 40% of female respondents compared to 36% of males. The latest survey shows the opposite trend: 39% of men now support Vance, versus 33% of women. Rubio, by contrast, sees 11% backing from women, slightly higher than his 8% support from men.
Among Hispanic and Latino voters, results closely mirror the broader trends: Vance leads with 24%, Trump Jr. follows at 22%, and Rubio claims 17%. Regional preferences also stand out, with Vance dominating rural areas at 47%, while Trump Jr. performs stronger in urban centers, receiving 32% versus Vance’s 28%.
Other potential candidates trail far behind. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is at 5%, Nikki Haley and Senator Ted Cruz each at 3%, and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy at 2%. The poll also mentioned figures such as former Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin, Texas Governor Greg Abbott, former DHS Secretary Kristi Noem, Senators Tim Scott, Rand Paul, Josh Hawley, Katie Britt, and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.
Meanwhile, Senator Rand Paul, a fiscal conservative and long-time Trump critic, is hinting at a potential 2028 bid, which would set up a showdown with Vance.
“We’ll decide after 2026,” Paul said in a weekend interview, adding that “without question” trust in the Trump administration is broken.
Paul previously sought the Republican nomination in 2016 but dropped out after finishing fifth in Iowa. He has since been re-elected to the Senate and maintains a strong voice for limited government, civil liberties, and a non-interventionist foreign policy. Fox News noted he has expressed concern that these principles are waning in a party heavily influenced by former President Donald Trump.
“The most important thing to me isn’t necessarily me or what my role is, but that there is someone who’s advocating that international trade is good and makes us rich. That big is not bad,” Paul said during an interview on “Sunday Night with Chuck Todd.”
As Republican voters begin to coalesce around Vance, Rubio’s gains and Paul’s potential entry signal a competitive primary landscape that could reshape the GOP heading into 2028.
