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The Rematch: AK Guy vs. Gonzales
Gonzales narrowly survived his 2024 primary, edging out a runoff by only a few hundred votes against former YouTube star and firearms manufacturer Herrera. Herrera built his entire campaign around one issue: Gonzales’s vote for Biden’s gun bill. Texas conservatives haven’t forgotten. Herrera now has another chance to capitalize on the GOP base’s lingering resentment.
Affair Allegations Add Fuel to the Fire
The runoff comes amid a scandal that could derail Gonzales’s campaign. The San Antonio Express-News reported in February that Gonzales allegedly carried on an affair with former regional director Regina Santos-Aviles, who tragically died in September 2025 after setting herself on fire outside her Uvalde home. Text messages shared with the media include one from May 2024 in which Gonzales allegedly asked Santos-Aviles for a “sexy pic,” to which she replied: “this is too far tony.”
Gonzales has denied the affair and stopped responding to press inquiries. Fellow Republicans haven’t held back. Rep. Nancy Mace called the messages “disgusting and shameful,” while Reps. Lauren Boebert, Anna Paulina Luna, Thomas Massie, and Tim Burchett publicly demanded his resignation. The House Office of Congressional Conduct has launched an investigation, though its findings will not reach the Ethics Committee before the runoff.
Endorsements May Not Be Enough
Despite the scandal, Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson have maintained their support, keeping Gonzales in the race—for now. But endorsements and party money may not carry the same weight in a runoff. Gonzales pulled roughly 43% in the initial vote; Herrera trailed with 42%. Neither candidate cleared the majority, guaranteeing a May 26 rematch.
Runoffs Favor the Fired-Up Base
Herrera’s strategy hasn’t changed. He continues to position himself as the defender of the Second Amendment against a congressman who “sold out gun owners.” Runoffs tend to favor highly motivated voters—the conservative base that censured Gonzales in multiple counties in 2023. With the scandal fresh, that base is likely more energized than ever. Establishment support, money, and endorsements rarely match the intensity of these voters’ turnout.
Other Key Takeaways From the Texas Primaries
The Texas primaries also delivered shocking results elsewhere. Senators John Cornyn and Ken Paxton head to a May 26 runoff after neither cleared 50%, while state Rep. James Talarico defeated Rep. Jasmine Crockett on the Democratic side.
In the House, Dan Crenshaw was ousted by state Rep. Steve Toth, making him the first Texas incumbent to lose renomination in 2026. Crenshaw lacked Trump’s backing, while Ted Cruz endorsed Toth. In the race for Attorney General, Chip Roy and state Sen. Mayes Middleton will face a runoff for the open seat.
What’s Next for Gonzales
Gonzales faces a high-stakes runoff amid scandal, past censure, and a motivated conservative electorate. Herrera’s single-issue campaign on gun rights, combined with the ethics probe and GOP outrage, sets the stage for one of the most closely watched primaries in Texas this cycle. May 26 will reveal whether establishment endorsements can overcome a deeply energized base—or if Gonzales’s political career in Congress is nearing its end.
