As the world grapples with the passing of Pope Francis on April 21, the Vatican is now poised for a momentous decision—the election of a new pope. The 2025 papal conclave has begun, and with it, speculation has mounted over who will become the next spiritual leader for the world’s 1.3 billion Catholics. While the final decision remains ultimately in the hands of the 133 cardinals locked away in the Sistine Chapel, one expert is offering a look at the frontrunners, grounded in data and statistical analysis.
According to Harry Enten, a renowned data expert and analyst, there’s no clear favorite—at least not in the conventional sense. “Favorite is a relative term in this particular case. Favorites, they’re favorites,” Enten remarked, acknowledging the fluid nature of the race.
Among the most discussed figures in the race is Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican’s Secretary of State. With a 29% chance according to betting markets, Parolin is seen as a candidate who would maintain the continuity of Pope Francis’ leadership. Known for his diplomatic skills, Parolin is closely aligned with Francis’ pragmatic approach to the role. However, his critics point to his involvement in internal Vatican bureaucracy, and his previous handling of sensitive abuse investigations, which has raised questions about his record.
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