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Despite these concerns, his long-standing position within the Vatican makes him a strong contender to follow in Francis’ footsteps. As one of the most high-profile members of the Vatican’s leadership, Parolin’s name is consistently at the top of the list of potential candidates.
Trailing closely behind Parolin is Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle from the Philippines, who is currently polling at 19%. Often referred to as the “Asian Francis” for his progressive views, Tagle is widely known for his openness toward divorced Catholics and members of the LGBTQ community. Once seen as a rising star within the Church, Tagle’s influence seems to have waned in recent years. Yet, his progressive stance continues to keep him in the conversation, especially as the Church contemplates its future direction in a rapidly changing world.
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Another significant development in the race comes from the candidates who represent two opposing wings within the Church. Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, who serves as the Archbishop of Bologna, is one of the most vocal proponents of Pope Francis’ progressive agenda, particularly in the realm of peace-building and social justice. Zuppi is currently polling at 10%, but his status as a peace negotiator may give him an edge as the Church faces significant global challenges.
On the other hand, Cardinal Péter Erdő of Hungary represents a more traditional, conservative faction of the Church. A staunch defender of Catholic orthodoxy, Erdő is backed by those within the Church who want to see a return to its more conservative roots. According to Enten, Erdő, along with other conservatives, could form a significant portion of the 42% “other” group in the betting markets—an unpredictable segment that could shake up the race entirely.
Enten further speculated, “Maybe it’s a conservative. Maybe it’s Erdo, who’s a hard conservative from Hungary. Maybe it’s Pizzaballa, who of course, is a softer conservative,” referencing Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem. Pizzaballa garnered attention in 2023 when he offered to trade himself for hostages during a Middle East crisis, showcasing his courage and commitment to peace.
Enten cautioned against reading too much into the betting odds. “Francis back in 2013, he was just a 4% chance according to the betters to be the next Pope. So this gives you an idea. Sometimes the betters are pretty gosh darn good and the favorite goes on to win. But sometimes the betters ain’t too hot to try,” he noted.
In papal elections, surprises are not uncommon. The 2013 election of Pope Francis was a shock to many, and with the cardinals locked away in secrecy, the dynamics of the conclave can shift at any moment. Allegiances can change rapidly, making it impossible to predict with certainty who will emerge victorious.
Enten also offered some historical context, noting the stark contrasts in the length of papal conclaves. The shortest conclave in history took just 10 hours, while the longest dragged on for nearly three years, from 1268 to 1271. Since the turn of the 20th century, however, most conclaves have lasted less than five days, suggesting that the next conclave could reach a swift conclusion.
While the front-runners dominate the conversation, there are several other candidates worth mentioning. Cardinal Peter Turkson from Ghana, Cardinal Robert Prevost from the United States, and Cardinal Jean-Marc Aveline from France all remain in the discussion. These candidates, while less prominent in the betting markets, could yet play a role in the election depending on the shifting allegiances and dynamics within the conclave.
For now, the world waits as the 2025 papal conclave unfolds. The 133 voting cardinals are locked away in the Sistine Chapel, each sworn to secrecy, and the outcome of the election is far from certain. The world will be watching for the signal—when the white smoke rises from the chapel chimney, we will know that the Church has chosen its new leader. Until then, speculation and analysis will continue to swirl, but in the end, the conclave’s decision will remain a matter of divine mystery.
