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All eyes are on Missouri’s 5th District — the Kansas City-based seat currently held by Democrat Rep. Emanuel Cleaver. GOP leaders believe a redraw could bring enough Republican voters into the district to finally unseat him. If successful, Republicans would control seven of Missouri’s eight congressional seats, cementing the state as deep red.
This push is part of a broader Republican strategy to hold and expand their narrow House majority. With the current margin sitting at 219–212 — and four seats vacant, three of which were held by Democrats — even small gains could secure GOP control through 2026.
Governor Mike Kehoe emphasized the importance of holding the line during a Tuesday press conference. “Our goal, if we move forward — and there’s no decision to move forward — is to make sure Missouri’s values are reflected in Washington, D.C.,” Kehoe said. “And I’ve said many times that I think our current speaker does a very good job of matching the values of Missourians.”
Republican lawmakers are already preparing for the debate. State Rep. Barry Hovis confirmed that two GOP caucus meetings are planned for September 10, during the legislature’s veto session. One will cover veto overrides, while the other is expected to dive directly into redistricting.
Hovis made it clear that Missouri isn’t acting in a vacuum. The decision could depend heavily on how Democrat-led states like California, Illinois, and New York respond to recent Republican gains in places like Texas. He also pointed to Democrat gerrymandering, citing Illinois’ infamous “snake” district and Massachusetts, where Republicans win a healthy share of the vote but hold zero House seats.
Still, Hovis cautioned that the governor will have to give the final green light. “For me to tell you that I know exactly what we’re going to do here, I truly don’t,” he admitted.
Missouri last redrew its congressional map in 2022 after a brutal Republican infighting session over whether to carve out seven GOP-leaning seats. With Democrats in the state Senate promising to block any new effort, the coming battle could be another uphill fight.
The biggest challenge, Hovis warned, is making sure Republicans don’t accidentally weaken their own ground while trying to squeeze out Cleaver. “If we go to the Kansas City model, the one that I saw when we did this several years ago, we’re going to have some districts that could be more purple than red, and we could end up being 5-3, real easy, or worst case scenario, 4-4,” he said.
Bukowsky also noted that incumbents are always wary of redistricting because they prefer voters who already recognize their names. Challengers, on the other hand, push for fresh maps that bring in voters more aligned with their own politics.
For now, Missouri Republicans face a choice: play it safe and keep their current advantage, or take a shot at flipping Cleaver’s seat and solidifying Trump’s vision of a stronger GOP majority in Congress.
