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The results from New Hampshire have far-reaching implications beyond just the Granite State. This poll is the latest in a series of signs suggesting that Trump may be expanding the electoral map, challenging assumptions about which states are truly battlegrounds.
It’s not just New Hampshire where Trump appears to be gaining ground. According to the latest RealClearPolling averages, Harris is expected to win New York, but by a much smaller margin than Biden did in 2020. Harris’s lead in New York hovers in the mid-teens, whereas Biden won the state by more than 23 points just four years ago. This seven-to-eight-point shift in Trump’s direction suggests that the former president is gaining momentum, even in traditionally deep-blue states.
Trump’s response to this shift has been to campaign aggressively in states that were not considered swing states in previous elections. For instance, Trump held a mega-rally on Sunday at Madison Square Garden in New York City—a location that reflects his focus on states that many thought were firmly in the Democratic camp.
New Hampshire isn’t the only state seeing tighter margins. In Virginia, a recent Quantus Insights poll showed Harris leading by just one point. Biden won Virginia by more than 10 points in 2020, making the one-point difference a significant shift. In response to these trends, Trump has scheduled a rally in Salem, Virginia, for November 2.
Similarly, Trump is making a push in New Mexico. The RealClearPolling average currently shows Harris with nearly an eight-point lead in the state, but Trump’s increased support among Hispanic and Latino voters makes the race worth watching. Biden won New Mexico by nearly 11 points in 2020, but Trump has seen a steady rise in his support from Latino voters, a group that comprises 45% of New Mexico’s electorate, according to Pew Research. This demographic shift has prompted Trump to plan a rally in Albuquerque just days before the election.
The significance of the New Hampshire poll cannot be fully understood without considering the broader national context. States like New York, Virginia, and New Mexico—once thought of as firmly Democratic—are showing signs of shifting rightward by anywhere from three to nine points. This trend mirrors what we’re seeing in New Hampshire, where a state that Biden won by seven points is now essentially a toss-up.
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What does this mean for the anticipated swing states? If traditionally blue states are becoming battlegrounds, it’s reasonable to expect that a similar rightward shift is happening in key swing states like Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. If blue states are tightening, these battlegrounds could also be moving in Trump’s favor.
The polls suggest that the political landscape heading into the 2024 election is far from predictable. What was once thought to be a straightforward race could become highly competitive, with Trump potentially gaining ground in states that haven’t voted Republican in decades. As we get closer to election day, it’s clear that both campaigns will need to pay attention to states that may have once seemed out of reach.
In the end, the New Hampshire poll could be the tip of the iceberg. If this trend continues, the 2024 election might hinge not only on traditional swing states but on deep-blue territories that are now in play. One thing is certain—this election cycle is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable in recent history.
