>> Continued From the Previous Page <<
Finally, when asked if he “completely” ruled it out, Moore doubled down. He insisted he is focused on state leadership, pointing to Maryland’s recent record:
“I’m so excited about what we’re doing. That we’ve gone from 43rd in the country in unemployment to now one of the lowest unemployment rates. We’ve had amongst the fastest drops in violent crime anywhere in the United States of America. Our population is growing. Maryland is moving, and so I’m really excited about going back in front of the people of my state and asking for another term,” Moore said.
Betting Markets Already Moving
Moore’s announcement comes as the online prediction platform Polymarket is drawing attention with its 2028 election odds. According to the site, Vice President JD Vance holds the commanding early lead, with 27 percent overall support.
California’s Gavin Newsom sits in second at 17 percent, followed by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 10 percent, and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg further back.
Kamala Harris, the Democrat Party’s failed 2024 nominee, is sitting near the basement at just 4 percent — an embarrassing showing for someone who once held the vice presidency. She even ranks below former President Trump, who constitutionally cannot run again after serving two terms.
Democrats in Disarray
Among Democrat contenders specifically, Newsom leads with a 22 percent chance, Ocasio-Cortez trails at 18 percent, Buttigieg clocks in at 12 percent, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro at 7 percent, and Harris scraping together 6 percent.
WATCH:
Republicans tell a much different story. Vance is running away with it, pulling in a massive 56 percent lead compared to second-place Marco Rubio at only 6 percent. That margin highlights just how dominant Vance’s positioning has become.
The Rise of JD Vance
The vice president has gained momentum not only by stepping into the role of RNC campaign finance chair — the first sitting VP to ever hold the job — but also by becoming one of the GOP’s strongest fundraisers ahead of the 2026 midterms.
He’s also carved out a prominent media presence, going to bat for Trump administration appointees like Director of Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard and HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Allies like Rep. Byron Donalds have already called Vance “the leader in the clubhouse,” saying he will be extremely difficult to defeat in 2028.
Newsom’s Calculated Moves
On the other side, Newsom continues working the media circuit, appearing even with right-leaning interviewers and maintaining a strong online presence. His efforts recently earned him praise from Rep. Jim Clyburn, the South Carolina Democrat kingmaker who gave Joe Biden the boost he needed in 2020.
Standing beside Newsom at a July event, Clyburn said he “feels good about” Newsom’s chances in 2028 — a sign that the California governor may have powerful backing should he make it official.
The Bottom Line
With Moore out of the picture, Democrats are scrambling to define their frontrunner. Newsom and Ocasio-Cortez may be fighting for the progressive lane, but JD Vance’s grip on the Republican side looks unshakable.
Prediction markets like Polymarket, which have a history of calling elections with surprising accuracy, are only confirming what grassroots voters are already sensing: the GOP has a clear favorite, while Democrats are still searching for a leader.
