That change comes as both campaigns enter the final days of an election in which even modest shifts in turnout could matter.
Paxton Gains Republican Support as Senate Contest Remains Close
The Quantus Insights survey, conducted October 26–28 among 1,221 likely Texas voters, reports Paxton receiving 48.7% support compared with 47.6% for Talarico.
Libertarian Ted Brown registers 1.4%, while another 2.2% remain undecided.
That gives Paxton a numerical advantage of 1.1 percentage points.
Earlier in October, the same polling organization measured the contest at 47.2% for Paxton and 46.7% for Talarico.
The change between the two surveys is modest, but the underlying party breakdown provides additional context.
Paxton now receives support from 93% of Republican respondents, compared with 87% in the previous survey.
Talarico, meanwhile, commands 96% of Democratic respondents, up from 95%.
Both candidates therefore have substantial backing within their respective parties.
However, Quantus Insights reports an approximately 6.4-point margin of error for the difference between the candidates. Paxton’s measured advantage falls comfortably inside that range.
The findings describe a competitive election rather than a statistically established lead.
Early Voting Numbers Reveal Different Patterns Between Parties
One of the survey’s more notable findings concerns which voters have already participated.
According to Quantus Insights, 59% of Democratic respondents report having cast their ballots.
Among Republicans, that figure stands at 49%.
Independents report an even lower early-voting participation rate of 41%.
These differences could become important when the remaining voters head to polling locations.
Approximately one-quarter of Republican and independent respondents say they intend to vote on Election Day.
The pollster also reports that respondents who have not yet voted express different candidate preferences from those who say they have already cast ballots.
That distinction offers a useful picture of the remaining electorate, although stated voting intentions do not guarantee actual turnout.
Across the entire sample, 54.3% report having voted.
Of those surveyed, 51.7% say they voted early in person, while 2.6% report voting by mail.
The final result will depend on actual ballots cast, not simply the participation plans recorded in a survey.
Independent Voters Present a Different Picture
Although Paxton’s Republican support has increased, the latest findings show Talarico performing considerably better among voters who identify as independents.
The Democrat receives 57% support from that group, compared with 33% for Paxton.
That represents a 24-point difference.
Earlier in October, Talarico’s advantage among independents stood at 15 points.
The shift is notable because independents account for approximately 14% of the electorate in the Quantus sample.
Geography also reveals contrasting voting preferences.
Paxton receives 66% support among rural respondents, compared with 31% for Talarico.
In urban communities, the figures reverse, with Talarico receiving 61% and Paxton 36%.
Suburban voters are more closely divided.
Paxton registers 49% support in those areas, while Talarico receives 47%.
The narrow suburban margin is another indication of how closely divided the survey’s electorate remains. Quantus Insights+1
Undecided Voters Are Becoming Increasingly Scarce
Another development in the Quantus findings is the declining number of Texans who have not selected a Senate candidate.
In the organization’s October 9–11 survey, 3.9% of respondents remained undecided.
By the October 26–28 survey, that figure had dropped to 2.2%.
Researchers followed up with 27 undecided Senate respondents to determine whether they leaned toward either major-party candidate.
Nine expressed a preference for Talarico.
Eight leaned toward Paxton.
The remaining ten did not indicate a preference.
When those responses were included, Paxton’s support reached 49.4%, while Talarico’s rose to 48.4%.
The resulting one-point difference remained close to the original ballot measurement.
These findings suggest that the survey’s remaining undecided respondents were not overwhelmingly concentrated behind either candidate.
Greg Abbott Records a Wider Polling Margin in Governor’s Race
The same Quantus survey examined the contest for Texas governor, producing a different set of results.
Republican Gov. Greg Abbott receives 50.7% support against Democrat Gina Hinojosa, who registers 45.8%.
Libertarian Pat Dixon attracts 1.2%, and 2.3% remain undecided.
Abbott’s measured advantage is 4.9 percentage points.
Although larger than the Senate margin, that difference also falls within the pollster’s reported margin of error for a candidate-to-candidate comparison.
Abbott is the only major-party candidate in either race whose initial polling figure exceeds 50%.
After respondents who initially reported being undecided were asked for their preferences, Abbott’s support increased to 51.6%, compared with 46.3% for Hinojosa.
The governor’s polling numbers also provide an interesting comparison with the Senate contest.
Abbott registers two percentage points more support than Paxton, while Hinojosa receives 1.8 points less than Talarico.
That gap illustrates how some respondents distinguish between the candidates running for different statewide offices.
Split-Ticket Voters Could Add Another Complication
Quantus Insights also examined whether respondents intend to support the same political party in both statewide races.
The survey found that 47.3% plan to vote for Republican candidates in both contests.
Another 46% say they support both Democratic candidates.
However, a smaller group reports preferences that cross party lines.
Approximately 2.2% of respondents intend to support Abbott for governor while choosing Talarico for Senate.
Among independents, that particular combination rises to 6%.
These results show that party affiliation remains closely connected to candidate preferences, although not every respondent intends to vote a straight-party ticket.
Other Texas Polls Show Why the Contest Remains Uncertain
The Quantus survey is not the only recent measurement of the Senate race.
A Texas Southern University/YouGov survey conducted October 21–25 reported Talarico at 49% and Paxton at 47%.
A CNN survey conducted October 20–27 measured Talarico at 49% and Paxton at 43%.
Meanwhile, an October 15–19 Fox News survey recorded a 49%–49% tie.
RealClearPolling’s average of recent surveys also places Talarico numerically ahead, despite Paxton’s advantage in the latest Quantus release. RealClearPolling+1
The variation among polls is important.
Different survey methodologies, voter samples and turnout assumptions can produce different estimates, particularly in a competitive election.
No individual survey establishes the final result.
Texas Heads Toward Election Day With Major Questions Unresolved
The latest Quantus Insights findings highlight several developments in the closing days of the Texas Senate campaign.
Paxton has increased his measured support among Republicans, while Talarico maintains substantial support among Democrats and a significant advantage among independent respondents.
Rural and urban voters also express sharply different preferences, with suburban respondents divided much more closely.
Early voting participation and Election Day turnout remain additional variables that polling cannot measure with certainty in advance.
With Election Day scheduled for November 3, the remaining campaign period is short.
The Quantus numbers provide a snapshot of voter preferences from October 26–28, not a definitive picture of the electorate that will ultimately determine the outcome.
For now, the Texas Senate contest remains closely divided, with the latest polling offering competing signals about the candidates’ support and the voters still to participate.
