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Democrats swept the Virginia and New Jersey governor’s races on November 4, 2025 by double-digit margins. In New York City, socialist Zohran Mamdani captured the mayor’s office even after Trump publicly endorsed his opponent.
Inside the White House, alarm bells were ringing as results rolled in.
“Hopefully POTUS starts focusing less on international stuff and more on domestic issues,” one White House official told MSNBC the night results poured in.¹
Trump himself did not sugarcoat the problem.
“‘TRUMP WASN’T ON THE BALLOT, AND SHUTDOWN, WERE THE TWO REASONS THAT REPUBLICANS LOST ELECTIONS TONIGHT,’ according to Pollsters,” Trump posted on Truth Social.²
Turnout Collapse Exposes GOP Vulnerability
The data was brutal.
In Virginia, Trump earned roughly 2.1 million votes in 2024. Republican gubernatorial nominee Winsome Earle-Sears managed only 1.4 million votes, a staggering 45 percent drop.
New Jersey was even worse. Republican Jack Ciattarelli lost 42 percent of Trump’s voters, while Democrats experienced just a 22 percent decline.
Latino voters also swung sharply away from Republicans. In New Jersey, Democrat Mikie Sherrill carried Latinos 68 percent to 31 percent, erasing the narrow margins Trump had achieved just one year earlier.³
The warning signs continued in Tennessee. Republican Matt Van Epps barely held the 7th Congressional District in a December special election, winning by only nine points in a district Trump carried by 22 points thirteen months earlier.
Senator Ted Cruz openly acknowledged what many in the party were privately admitting.
“It was dangerous. We could have lost this district because the people who showed up, many of them are the ones that are motivated by how much they dislike President Trump,” Cruz told Fox News.⁴
Wiles Destroys the Traditional Midterm Playbook
Wiles says Republicans must abandon decades of conventional wisdom.
“Typically, in the midterms, it’s not about who’s sitting at the White House,” Wiles told The Mom View podcast. “You localize the election and you keep the federal officials out of it. We’re actually going to turn that on its head.”⁵
Her reasoning is grounded in turnout reality.
“So many of those low propensity voters are Trump voters. And we saw a week ago Tuesday what happens when he’s not on the ballot and not active,” Wiles said. “I haven’t quite broken it to him yet, but he’s going to campaign like it’s 2024 again.”
Trump activates millions of voters who otherwise stay home. When those voters disappear, Republicans hemorrhage ground in special elections and off-year contests.
“President Trump is the greatest driver of turnout in election history; having him on the trail will help Republicans, all Americans, win in 2026,” Rep. Byron Donalds told The Floridian.⁶
Trump Builds a War Chest for 2026
Wiles also revealed Trump wasted no time preparing financially.
“The President started raising money for the midterms the day after the election, and he’s sitting on a huge war chest to help these people, and he’ll use it.”
The stakes could not be higher. Republicans hold a razor-thin 219-214 House majority. All 435 seats are up for grabs, along with one-third of the Senate.
Democrats are already framing the election around affordability while tying Republicans to Trump’s tariffs and spending cuts. Historically, the party out of power gains seats during midterms, and recent polling has Democrats salivating.
An Emerson College poll showed Trump’s approval rating in Tennessee’s 7th District slipping to 47 percent, with 49 percent disapproving.
“President Trump’s approval rating is a stark reversal from last November, when he carried the district by 22 points,” the poll analysis stated. “The decline is driven by independents, among whom 59% disapprove and just 34% approve.”⁷
If Democrats reclaim the House, Trump’s legislative agenda comes to a grinding halt. Investigations will resume. Impeachment threats will follow.
Susie Wiles and Donald Trump are betting that the same force that carried Republicans to victory in 2024 is the only thing capable of saving them in 2026.
Trump on the ballot again. Everywhere.
