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One of the key competitors attempting to disrupt the expected outcome is Los Angeles City Council member Nithya Raman, who has drawn support from progressive voters across the city. Despite her active campaign, projections suggest she trails both Bass and Pratt as the counting continues.
CNBC cited prediction market activity on Wednesday morning:
“Traders are fairly certain Bass will make it to the second round, giving her 93% odds. Bass has consistently led in public polls of the race, though has been well short of the 50% mark for an outright win in the first round. Pratt has about a three-in-three chance of advancing, according to traders.
City Councilmember Nithya Raman is also challenging the incumbent. Raman has a 28% chance of advancing to the second round.
CNN reported Wednesday morning that Bass had secured a spot on the November ballot while Pratt was running in second place ahead of far-left City Councilwoman Nithya Raman and other candidates.”
As the vote count stood early Wednesday morning—around 3:30 a.m. local time with roughly 63 percent of ballots processed—Pratt remained firmly in second place, according to preliminary reporting. That positioning has fueled growing speculation that the final runoff matchup is effectively locked in between Bass and Pratt, barring any unexpected late shifts in remaining ballot counts.
If current projections hold, the November runoff would set up a head-to-head contest between the incumbent mayor and a challenger who has built his campaign around frustration with the city’s current direction.
Pratt, who lost his home in last year’s Pacific Palisades fire, has spent months urging voters to support what he describes as a new approach for Los Angeles governance. His campaign has leaned heavily on concerns about public safety, housing affordability, and what supporters say is a need for stronger leadership at City Hall.
Bass’ tenure as mayor has faced ongoing scrutiny from critics over several major issues, including the city’s response to devastating wildfires, the escalating cost-of-living crisis, and the persistent homelessness emergency that continues to shape daily life across Los Angeles neighborhoods.
Pratt said late Tuesday night he was ready to take Bass on:
As the final ballots continue to be counted, attention is now shifting toward what a Bass-Pratt runoff could look like in November. With both candidates expected to advance, the coming weeks are likely to bring intensified campaigning, sharper messaging, and a clearer contrast between two very different visions for the future of Los Angeles.
For now, the race remains in a holding pattern—awaiting official certification—but the trajectory of the election suggests that voters are on course for a decisive showdown later this year.
