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Paxton, meanwhile, has positioned himself as a reliable Trump ally and a fighter for the MAGA movement. That loyalty appears to be paying dividends with the Republican base. Heading into next March’s primary, Paxton has both momentum and energy on his side, while Cornyn faces a party base that is increasingly hostile toward establishment Republicans.
But Paxton’s rise hasn’t come without battles of his own. In September 2023, he survived a major impeachment trial after the Texas House of Representatives leveled charges against him. His acquittal gave him a powerful boost among grassroots conservatives who saw the impeachment as a political witch hunt.
Even more striking, Paxton managed to finally put to rest decade-old securities fraud charges earlier this year. With that legal cloud lifted, he has been free to focus on his campaign and capitalize on the enthusiasm of Trump-aligned voters.
The polling trend lines only strengthen Paxton’s case. As one report noted, “Polling reflected the divide. In May, a Texas Southern University poll showed Paxton leading Cornyn by 9 percentage points in a head-to-head primary matchup. In June, a University of Texas at Tyler poll put Paxton’s advantage at 10 points. Cornyn was underwater with the base.”
Then came another headline-making twist: Paxton’s wife, Angela, announced in July that she was filing for divorce on “biblical grounds.” The phrase appeared to reference the alleged affair that surfaced during his impeachment ordeal. While such personal news could have derailed another candidate, Paxton’s support among MAGA Republicans has remained strong.
Despite every challenge thrown at him, Paxton has emerged as the clear favorite of the conservative grassroots. Meanwhile, Cornyn is left trying to convince a skeptical base that he still deserves their trust. As the report points out, voter sentiment could shift before Election Day—but right now, it’s Paxton who holds the upper hand, and Cornyn who finds himself on shaky ground.
