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Towery stressed that Trump’s current lead far surpasses where he stood in the national averages at this same point during his runs against Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020. He went on to say that Harris is not performing anywhere near as strongly as Biden or Clinton did in their respective campaigns. “Trump is running way ahead of where he has in the last two cycles that he ran in the national average,” Towery said, implying that Democrats might be underestimating his support once again.
He also highlighted that although battleground states are tight, no candidate appears to hold a definitive advantage. “I don’t think there’s any state where anyone has a four or five-point lead right now that’s a battleground state. I just don’t see it, and I don’t believe it,” Towery explained, dismissing claims that Harris is dominating in these critical regions.
One area where Trump may still need to focus his efforts is with older voters, a demographic that historically turns out in significant numbers during elections. Towery acknowledged that while Trump’s overall standing is better, his performance with seniors could be improved. “He’s got to concentrate on senior voters, though. He’s down in the polls with senior voters, and that’s what will get him high enough so that he can get above any question about voter turnout, which Democrats are very good at,” Towery advised.
Towery also outlined a clear path to victory for Trump in 2024. “Georgia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina — if Trump carries those three, he wins. Alternatively, if Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina, Michigan go his way, he loses some of these other states, he wins,” Towery added, suggesting that the electoral math is in Trump’s favor if he can secure these critical states.
In a major setback for Harris, one of the nation’s largest and most influential unions, the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, announced that it would not be endorsing her campaign. The Teamsters have traditionally backed Democratic candidates in past elections, but this year they are withholding their support, a move seen as a bigger blow to Harris than Trump.
Teamsters President Sean O’Brien revealed that nearly two-thirds of the union’s members expressed support for Trump, leading the organization to decide not to endorse either candidate in this election cycle. “Unfortunately, neither major candidate was able to make serious commitments to our union to ensure the interests of working people are always put before Big Business,” O’Brien said in a statement. This decision marks the first time the union has chosen not to endorse a candidate since 1996.
Despite Harris’ appeal to working-class voters, the internal Teamsters poll showed that roughly 60 percent of its members favor Trump over the current vice president. This revelation not only dents Harris’ campaign but also highlights a broader dissatisfaction among working-class voters, a key demographic that could swing the election in Trump’s favor.
With the mainstream media pushing narratives that Harris is gaining ground, pollster Matt Towery’s data paints a different picture, showing Trump’s significant lead in the national polls and greater resilience in battleground states. As Trump focuses on key demographics like senior voters and maintains strong support from union members, his momentum continues to build. Whether the media chooses to acknowledge it or not, the 2024 election is shaping up to be far from the runaway victory for Democrats that many had predicted.
