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Perhaps most telling is Wisconsin, where Trump maintains a narrow 0.5-point lead over Harris. The razor-thin margin underscores just how competitive this election could be in the final days. The only swing state where Harris currently leads is North Carolina, but even there, her advantage is razor-thin at just 0.5 points. The numbers in North Carolina indicate that despite its history as a red-leaning state, the race remains highly competitive and unpredictable.
On the national stage, the race is just as tight, with Trump holding a modest 1.7-point lead over Harris in a two-way race. According to the polling, Trump garners 49.8% of the vote compared to Harris’s 48.1%. However, in a broader contest that includes third-party candidates, Trump’s lead expands slightly. In a full-field scenario, Trump holds a 2.5-point lead over Harris, with 49.5% support compared to Harris’s 47%. Third-party candidates, like Green Party nominee Jill Stein and Libertarian Larry Sharpe, collectively capture a small share of the vote, with Stein polling at 0.8% and Sharpe at 0.2%.
For Vice President Harris, the path to victory is increasingly difficult. She not only needs to cut into Trump’s leads in key swing states, but she also faces the challenge of energizing a Democratic base that appears less enthusiastic than it was in 2020. The AtlasIntel data suggests that Harris must work quickly to persuade undecided voters and solidify her base if she hopes to close the gap in these final days.
In Arizona, one of the most hotly contested Senate races in the country, the competition between Democratic Representative Ruben Gallego and Republican Kari Lake has reached a fever pitch. AtlasIntel’s latest poll shows Gallego clinging to a narrow 0.5-point lead, with 48.4% support compared to Lake’s 47.9%. The numbers have tightened considerably over the past month—Gallego led by 4.1 points in late September, but that margin has steadily shrunk as Lake gains momentum. Now, with just days to go, the race is too close to call, and Arizona’s Senate seat remains a toss-up.
This Senate race is one of many that could determine control of the U.S. Senate, making it a crucial battleground not just for the candidates but for the direction of the country as a whole. “With control of the Senate in play, this is a race to watch closely,” noted one political analyst.
While Democrats have focused heavily on issues like abortion rights and healthcare in an attempt to rally their base, AtlasIntel’s polling indicates that voters are more concerned about the economy, particularly inflation and rising gas prices. Trump’s messaging on these economic issues seems to be resonating more strongly with voters in swing states, helping him gain ground in the final stretch of the campaign.
The data also suggests that Trump has successfully consolidated his base, while Harris struggles to energize the Democratic coalition. If Harris is unable to reverse these trends in the coming days, the former president could be poised for a major comeback victory.
With Election Day rapidly approaching, both campaigns are doubling down on their efforts in key states. For Trump, the path to victory is becoming clearer as he regains ground in battleground states that were once considered out of reach. For Harris, the final week presents a daunting challenge as she faces the task of cutting into Trump’s leads while also shoring up her support among the Democratic base.
The stage is set for a nail-biting finish, with the outcome of this election likely to hinge on the decisions of voters in a handful of pivotal states. As the data continues to evolve, one thing is clear: this race is far from over, and both sides are preparing for a final sprint to the finish line.
