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The process of electing a new pope will begin soon — 120 voting-age cardinals will descend upon the Vatican to participate in a sacred and secretive process. Four ballots per day will be cast until one man achieves a two-thirds majority. If no decision is made after 30 rounds, the final two candidates will face off in a showdown for the highest office in the Church.
This real-life conclave could resemble the political drama depicted in the 2024 hit film Conclave — and there’s even a real-life version of Ralph Fiennes’ character. Cardinal Giovanni Battista Re, 91, will serve as dean of the College of Cardinals and, while not eligible to vote due to age, may wield considerable behind-the-scenes influence, as explained by Rev. Patrick Mary Briscoe, editor of Our Sunday Visitor.
But who are the frontrunners?
A variety of names are surfacing, each signaling a potential new direction for the Church — some a continuation of Francis’ policies, others a dramatic pivot back to tradition.
- Cardinal Luis Tagle (67, Philippines) – Seen as a protégé of Pope Francis, Tagle holds “very ‘open’ opinions on issues such as Communion for non-sacramentally married couples and homosexuality,” according to Vatican analyst Gaetano Masciullo, suggesting he may double down on the liberalization started by Francis.
- Cardinal Pietro Parolin (70, Italy) – A diplomatic heavyweight with ties to the Vatican’s controversial dealings with Communist China, Parolin holds a mix of moderate and traditional views. Analysts say he’s one of the favorites, largely due to his deep influence in Church diplomacy.
- Cardinal Jean-Marc Aveline (66, France) – Known as Pope Francis’ “favorite,” Aveline is lauded by liberal theologians and insiders for his soft-spoken, intellectual approach to Scripture and progressive Catholic thought.
- Cardinal Willem Jacobus Eijk (71, Netherlands) – A theologian and physician, Eijk has taken tough stances against modern social issues like same-sex unions, transgender ideology, and women’s roles in the Church. He’s firmly in the camp of Catholic traditionalists and would signal a major break from Francis-era reforms.
- Cardinal Malcolm Ranjith (77, Sri Lanka) – A deeply respected figure in Asia, Ranjith is known for his alignment with the values of Pope Benedict XVI, while also emphasizing care for the poor — a central theme under Francis. He could be the bridge between both worlds.
- Cardinal Robert Sarah (79, Guinea) – A staunch conservative and critic of many of Pope Francis’ liberal reforms, Sarah has championed the revival of the Latin Mass and a strict adherence to Church doctrine. His election would mark a sharp turn toward tradition.
Though technically any baptized Catholic man is eligible to become pope, historians say the odds of a non-cardinal being chosen are virtually nonexistent. “The odds of someone other than a cardinal being elected … are lower than a snowball’s chance in hell,” quipped Kean University historian Christopher Bellitto.
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In fact, the last time the Church selected a pope from outside the College of Cardinals, it sparked a major schism that fractured the Church for nearly 40 years.
One thing is certain: this conclave will be one of the most consequential in modern Catholic history. The Church is at a crossroads. After more than a decade of progressive upheaval, many faithful are hoping for a return to clarity, tradition, and moral certainty.
Will the cardinals answer that call? The world waits.
