Despite the differences between those benchmarks, the broader picture is clear: regional oil exports have recovered considerably from the steep declines experienced earlier this year, but the market has yet to return fully to its previous operating conditions.
Saudi Arabia Leads the Recovery
Saudi Arabia has emerged as a major contributor to the latest increase in regional oil shipments.
The kingdom’s crude exports more than doubled between August and September, rising from approximately 2.446 million barrels per day to around 5.4 million barrels per day, according to the preliminary figures.
The increase comes as Saudi Arabia works to restore its export capacity following disruptions to critical energy infrastructure.
Shipments from Ras Tanura, one of the kingdom’s major oil terminals on the Persian Gulf, also increased sharply. Daily loadings reportedly reached between 3.25 million and 3.6 million barrels, up from approximately 929,000 barrels per day in August.
Even with that recovery, Ras Tanura remains below its February export level of 6.411 million barrels per day.
The scale of the renewed activity was also evident in tanker movements. During one recent week, 19 very large crude carriers transporting Saudi oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Each vessel can carry approximately two million barrels of crude.
Those shipments underscore the importance of the waterway to the region’s energy industry, even as producers attempt to diversify their export routes.
Strait of Hormuz Remains a Critical Chokepoint
Kpler’s preliminary estimates placed September oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz between 7.4 million and 9.7 million barrels per day.
The increase followed Saudi Arabia’s decision to redirect more crude through its Persian Gulf export terminals after attacks damaged its East-West pipeline.
That pipeline had provided an alternative route for transporting oil to Yanbu, a Red Sea port that allows shipments to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.
With that infrastructure disrupted, Saudi Arabia has had greater reason to rely on its Gulf terminals, increasing the importance of safe passage through the narrow waterway.
Nevertheless, the strait is not the region’s only export option.
Alternative routes include the United Arab Emirates’ pipeline to Fujairah, Omani export terminals and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman.
When those alternative channels are combined with shipments passing directly through Hormuz, regional crude flows have recovered to nearly 80 percent of their pre-conflict levels, according to one Kpler assessment.
The recovery also extends beyond crude oil.
Qatar-linked liquefied natural gas tankers crossed the strait in September after tracking data showed no visible transits during August. However, QatarEnergy has continued extending delivery suspensions for certain customers, indicating that normal energy trade has not yet been fully restored.
A Dramatic Rebound From Earlier Disruptions
The latest export figures represent a substantial improvement from the conditions seen during the early months of the conflict.
The International Energy Agency reported that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz plunged from approximately 20 million barrels per day before the war to an average of just 2.7 million barrels per day between March and May.
That decline demonstrated how quickly a regional conflict can disrupt one of the world’s most important energy corridors.
The UAE managed to restore exports more quickly than many other producers by drawing on stored crude, utilizing its Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline to Fujairah and expanding its use of alternative shipping routes.
Its exports climbed from approximately 1.9 million barrels per day in March to 4.3 million barrels per day in early June, reaching roughly 85 percent of prewar levels.
Saudi Arabia also increased shipments through Yanbu during that period, with exports rising from approximately two million barrels per day to more than five million barrels per day.
Together, these efforts helped prevent the region’s export infrastructure from remaining as severely constrained as it was during the initial phase of the conflict.
Shipping Data Comes With Important Limitations
Despite the encouraging figures, analysts face challenges when attempting to measure the precise volume of oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz.
Some vessels deactivate their Automatic Identification System transponders while passing through the waterway, making it difficult for commercial tracking services to record every shipment.
As a result, preliminary shipping estimates may not capture the full scale of maritime activity.
U.S. Central Command has also reported a substantial cumulative volume of oil transported under U.S. Navy escorts, with the reported total recently surpassing one billion barrels.
That figure, however, reflects a broader cumulative measure and should not be confused with the daily export estimates reported by Kpler.
Trump Rejects Iran’s Proposed Agreement
The latest shipping data emerged as Washington and Tehran continued discussions over the future of the Strait of Hormuz.
Last week, Iranian and American representatives held approximately three hours of mediated talks on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly.
The discussions reportedly involved Qatari intermediaries, U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.
The central issue included the possibility of reopening the strategic waterway, but the negotiations ended without an agreement.
President Donald Trump subsequently rejected Iran’s proposal, arguing that Tehran was seeking an arrangement because of its difficulties in the conflict.
“I’m rejecting their deal. They want to make a deal where they open the strait immediately because they are losing so badly,” President Donald Trump said in response to Iran’s proposal.
Trump also claimed that the United States had established control over the waterway and that oil shipments were continuing despite the conflict.
“You don’t see that in the fake news. We’re winning tremendously, we have total control of the Hormuz Strait, massive amounts of oil are coming out of the Hormuz Strait, last night we had 29 ships come out. They want to make a deal. I think that’s fine, I like making a deal too. But that deal they offered would not be acceptable.”
The president’s remarks reflect the administration’s position that the United States is negotiating from a position of strength. However, the absence of an agreement means the future operating conditions for commercial shipping remain uncertain.
For energy markets, the stakes extend well beyond the immediate confrontation between Washington and Tehran.
The Strait of Hormuz remains a central artery for global oil and gas supplies, and any sustained disruption could affect producers, shipping companies and energy consumers around the world.
September’s export rebound offers evidence that Middle Eastern producers are finding ways to move more oil despite the conflict. Yet with shipments still below prewar levels, damaged infrastructure and diplomatic negotiations unresolved, the recovery remains incomplete.
The bottom line: Middle Eastern oil exports have climbed to their highest monthly level since the conflict began, with Saudi Arabia driving much of the increase. But the region’s return toward normal shipping volumes remains closely tied to the security of the Strait of Hormuz and the outcome of ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations.
