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In 2020, the polling gap remained significant. Biden was up by 7.2 percent in national polling but ultimately won by only 4.5 percent. Wisconsin polls put Biden ahead by 6.7 percent, but he won the state by less than a point. Similarly, in Michigan, Biden’s lead of 5.1 percent shrunk to a 2.8 percent victory. Given these past polling trends, Trump appears well-positioned to sweep swing states if the polling misses remain consistent.
While the RCP averages favor Trump, other polling data presents a more divided picture. On Sunday, the Decision HQ/The Hill average of battleground states placed Trump ahead in all seven states. However, a New York Times/Siena College poll released the same day showed Harris with narrow leads in Nevada (49 to 46 percent), North Carolina (48 to 46), Wisconsin (49 to 47), and Georgia (48 to 47), while Pennsylvania and Michigan remained tied. Trump’s only advantage in the Times poll was in Arizona, where he held a 49 to 45 margin.
Notably, the Times poll raised a concern about response rates, stating, “Across these final polls, white Democrats were 16 percent likelier to respond than white Republicans. That’s a larger disparity than our earlier polls this year, and it’s not much better than our final polls in 2020 — even with the pandemic over. It raises the possibility that the polls could underestimate Mr. Trump yet again.”
Republican National Committee political director James Blair responded to the Times poll, highlighting a perceived bias in its methodology. He argued on Fox News, “In all of the battleground states, they’ve set the electorate to the left of 2020, which doesn’t comport with what we know, which is that all of these electorates have moved to the right” based on rising Republican registrations. Blair added that this might be a tactic to “under represent President Trump’s support.”
Trump campaign spokesperson Karoline Leavitt echoed the optimistic outlook, stating, “Our internal polls have President Trump leading in every key battleground state. We are cautiously optimistic about a big victory tomorrow night as long as everyone turns out to vote.” Leavitt pointed to strong early voting numbers among Republicans, arguing that they offer Trump a solid foundation heading into Election Day.
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With polls tightening and historical trends hinting at potential polling errors, Trump’s campaign appears confident in its last-minute momentum. Republican strategists are banking on strong turnout, particularly in swing states where early voting and late polling both suggest an advantage. As voters prepare to make their voices heard, all eyes are now on Tuesday to see if Trump’s standing in the polls translates into another electoral win.
