The Associated Press called the Republican contest at 8 p.m. ET, with Donalds holding roughly 49% of the vote at the time.
Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins finished well behind Donalds at approximately 24.7%. James Fishback, the founder of an investment firm who generated considerable attention during the campaign, was sitting at about 10.1%.
The Democratic primary produced an even more decisive result.
Jolly captured nearly 62% of the Democratic vote, securing his party’s nomination and creating an unusual general-election matchup between two former members of Congress with sharply different political identities.
Jolly once served Florida as a Republican in the U.S. House from 2014 through 2017. His political path changed dramatically after that, as he broke with the GOP, became an independent and eventually aligned himself with the Democratic Party.
His opposition to Trump was a major factor in that political transformation, beginning during Trump’s first presidential campaign in 2015.
Now Jolly is betting that Florida voters may be ready for a change despite the state’s increasingly conservative political landscape.
“If the election were tonight, we would win the general election in Florida as a Democratic candidate,” Jolly told CNN shortly before Tuesday’s results were called.
Jolly is not ignoring the steep climb ahead. But he believes the 2026 environment could give Democrats an opening that has been difficult to find in recent statewide elections.
“The cycle is presenting an opportunity where voters are just screaming for change,” he said.
Democratic National Committee Chairman Ken Martin quickly praised Jolly following his primary victory, casting him as a candidate with the experience and independence needed to compete across Florida.
“David has demonstrated a commitment to putting people over politics and is fighting tirelessly for Florida families,” Martin said.
“Floridians have chosen a leader with the experience, independence, and vision to lower costs, strengthen the state’s economy, protect fundamental freedoms, and deliver for Florida,” he added.
But Democrats face a daunting political map.
The party has not won the Florida governor’s mansion in more than 25 years. Meanwhile, Republicans have strengthened their grip on the state during the Trump era.
Trump won Florida by roughly 13 percentage points in the 2024 presidential election. Two years earlier, DeSantis won reelection by nearly 20 points.
The GOP also maintains a significant advantage in voter registration, providing Donalds with a powerful foundation heading into the general election.
Still, Democrats have reason to believe the contest may not be a complete blowout.
A University of North Florida poll conducted in July showed Donalds ahead of Jolly by only five points, 46% to 41%. Six percent of respondents were undecided, while another 5% backed someone else.
The numbers among independent voters were even tighter.
Donalds held 39% support among voters unaffiliated with either major party, while Jolly was just one point behind at 38%.
Other polling has produced somewhat better news for Republicans.
A Targoz Market Research survey commissioned by the James Madison Institute put Donalds ahead 45% to 38%, with 17% of voters either undecided or selecting another option.
A separate Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research poll showed an identical seven-point advantage, giving Donalds 47% compared with Jolly’s 40%.
Craig Agranoff, a political science professor, argued before the primaries that Republicans remain in a strong position based on Florida’s recent electoral history. At the same time, he warned that a competitive campaign should not be dismissed.
“Right now the fundamentals favor Republicans holding the seat, but a closer race than expected is possible if independents swing hard or if economic concerns dominate,” Agranoff told Newsweek.
“It is not locked up yet, but the baseline favors the GOP,” he added.
The betting markets have been significantly more confident in a Republican victory than some of the polling numbers suggest.
Both Kalshi and Polymarket put the Republican probability of winning above 80% Tuesday night.
The Cook Political Report has likewise classified the contest as a Solid Republican pickup, according to Newsweek.
For Donalds, the general election begins with several major advantages already in place: Trump’s endorsement, a strong national profile and a Republican electorate that has become increasingly dominant in Florida.
But Jolly will attempt to turn the race into something larger than a traditional red-state contest.
Democrats will likely emphasize economic concerns, dissatisfaction with the political establishment and the possibility of a midterm backlash against Republicans.
Jolly’s challenge will be convincing enough Florida voters — particularly independents — that the state is ready to break with its recent Republican voting pattern.
Donalds, meanwhile, will seek to reinforce the GOP’s dominance and present himself as the candidate best positioned to continue the political direction Florida has taken under Republican leadership.
The stakes are significant.
A Jolly victory would represent a dramatic Democratic breakthrough in a state where Republicans have built a formidable statewide machine. A Donalds win, by contrast, would further cement Florida’s transformation into one of the GOP’s strongest states.
The final verdict comes November 3.
And while the early numbers give Republicans the clear advantage, the battle between Donalds and Jolly is officially underway.
