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Enten also touched on Biden’s approval rating, hinting that it may be a roadblock for Harris if she tries to succeed him. Historically, a president’s low ratings often precede a loss for their party’s next candidate. Enten pointed out, “In fact, I went back through history, there isn’t a single time in which 28% of the American public thinks the country is going on the right track in which the incumbent party actually won. They always lose when just 28% of the country believes that the country is on the right track.”
While Enten noted that it remains uncertain if Harris will run as Biden’s successor, he shared parallels from past presidential cycles where low approval ratings marked a party’s loss. “George W. Bush’s approval rating was down in the 20’s. Did a Republican succeed George W. Bush? No,” Enten said, citing more examples: “How ’bout in 1968? Lyndon Baines Johnson…Did a Democrat succeed Lyndon Baines Johnson? No…Harry S. Truman in ’52…Did a Democrat succeed Harry S. Truman? My memory, no.”
For Harris to succeed Biden, she’d have to defy this trend, Enten suggested. He pointed to Biden’s current ratings and concluded, “So the bottom line is for Kamala Harris to win, she’d have to break history.”
On the voter registration front, Republicans have been gaining ground in battleground states, especially in Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. This surge could reshape the electorate in a way that benefits Trump. “So Republicans are putting more Republicans in the electorate,” Enten noted. “The Democratic number versus the Republican number has shrunk. And so the bottom line is if Republicans win…Donald Trump wins…you can’t say you weren’t warned.”
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Adding to the mix, the latest polling data from AtlasIntel, which accurately forecasted the 2020 cycle, shows Trump gaining momentum in swing states critical to Biden’s previous victory. Trump leads in six of the seven states surveyed, reinforcing Enten’s outlook that current conditions favor Trump over Harris.
With Election Day just a week away, these trends may hold the key to a surprising shift in America’s political landscape, suggesting that if Harris hopes to win, she’ll need to break with history and buck a formidable tide.
