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Political analysts are now taking notice of Virginia’s shifting political landscape. Stephen J. Farnsworth, a political science professor and director of the Center for Leadership and Media Studies, commented on the significance of the findings. “This new survey suggests Virginia should be getting a much closer look from both presidential campaigns,” Farnsworth said. “Virginia may deserve to be treated as a ‘swing state’ once again this year.”
This would be a significant change for Virginia, which has not been seen as a swing state since the early 2000s. George W. Bush’s presidency marked the last time the state was considered up for grabs. Since then, Democrats have dominated the state, with Barack Obama winning it twice and Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden also securing comfortable victories in 2016 and 2020, respectively.
However, this shift could spell trouble for Harris. The poll echoes other recent findings that suggest Trump is gaining momentum in states that were once considered Democratic strongholds. Back in May, a Roanoke College poll found both Biden and Trump tied at 42% each in Virginia. The political climate has only grown more intense since then, with debates and campaign strategies adding more fuel to the fire.
Harris, who has faced intense scrutiny from Republicans and some moderates, is seeing poll numbers that more closely resemble Hillary Clinton’s in 2016 than Joe Biden’s in 2020. While national polling trends have shown a slight rebound for the Democratic ticket, state-level polling, especially in swing states like Virginia, suggests a much tougher fight ahead. Given the significant media attention Harris has received, coupled with the ongoing critique of the Biden-Harris administration, many are surprised her numbers aren’t stronger.
If Trump manages to pull off a win in Virginia, it could set off a domino effect in other key battleground states. Harris would need to secure victories in places like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—all of which have seen tight races in recent years. Adding to the pressure, she would also have to capture one of the traditionally Republican-leaning Sun Belt states, such as Arizona, Georgia, or North Carolina, to secure an Electoral College victory.
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The potential for Virginia to flip in Trump’s favor reflects broader dissatisfaction with the Biden-Harris administration. Should that happen, it would likely indicate a broader sweep of battleground states for Trump. This possibility has led Democratic strategists to reconsider their resource allocation, with more focus likely to be shifted to Virginia—a state that, until recently, was expected to be solidly blue.
“Virginia may deserve to be treated as a ‘swing state’ once again this year,” Farnsworth noted. Should the Democratic ticket lose Virginia, they could face a significant uphill battle, forcing them to divert resources from crucial states like Pennsylvania and Arizona.
As the election heats up, both campaigns will be watching Virginia closely. What was once thought to be a locked-in Democratic state is now back in play, and with Harris struggling to break through, Trump may have the opportunity to embarrass the Democrats on Election Day.
