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“When you take a look at the numbers, both in comparison to the numbers four years ago and voter registration, Democrats are way down and Republicans are up in early voting,” said Carl DeMaio.
“It may mean that many Democrats are taking longer to decide on the governor’s race and who ultimately they want to lead,” DeMaio added.
The early voting spike has become particularly noticeable among older Californians, many of whom consistently vote in every election regardless of turnout expectations. Analysts say these voters are traditionally more reliable and are often more conservative than younger demographics.
Data from the ballot tracker shows voters aged 65 and older are leading turnout by a wide margin. Participation drops dramatically among younger voters, especially those between 18 and 34 years old, a demographic Democrats usually depend on heavily.
Political analyst Paul Mitchell cautioned against reading too much into the numbers too early but admitted the trend is notable.
“The early days part is important because some of what we’re seeing is which counties are quicker at returning the data to us,” Mitchell said.
Still, Mitchell acknowledged that reliable Republican voters are showing up early once again, particularly older property owners and rural voters.
“It’s kind of typical of a low-turnout election that these are the people that always vote in every election. They probably almost always vote early, and they’re getting their ballots in right away,” Mitchell said.
The demographic breakdown is also drawing attention. White voters currently represent the largest share of early ballots returned, followed by Asian voters, Black voters, and Latino voters.
Mitchell noted that voting patterns could still shift dramatically closer to Election Day, especially among Latino voters who historically tend to wait longer before casting ballots.
“We see these patterns where some voters still want to vote at the polls,” he said.
Another key development appears to involve mail-in voting behavior among Republicans. During the 2020 election cycle, skepticism surrounding mail ballots caused many conservative voters to abandon early voting methods. That trend now appears to be reversing.
“We did see some stuff in 2020 when Republicans and the Trump administration said ‘Don’t vote by mail,’ where that started to drop off. But it seems like it might be returning,” Mitchell explained.
The growing Republican enthusiasm comes as California prepares for a highly watched governor’s race under the state’s controversial “jungle” primary system, where all candidates compete together regardless of party affiliation. Only the top two candidates advance to the November election, creating anxiety on both sides of the political aisle.
On the Democratic side, former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra remains one of the leading contenders alongside billionaire activist Tom Steyer and former congresswoman Katie Porter.
Meanwhile, Republicans are increasingly rallying around former Fox News host Steve Hilton, who has emerged as a strong favorite among conservative voters. Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco also remains in the Republican field, though recent polling suggests Hilton currently holds the advantage.
Most polling projections indicate Becerra and Hilton are currently best positioned to survive the primary and advance to the general election showdown in November.
For Democrats, however, the bigger concern may not simply be who wins the primary. It may be the warning sign hidden beneath the turnout data itself.
If Republicans continue outperforming expectations in early voting inside deep-blue California, national Democrats could face growing fears that voter enthusiasm problems extend far beyond just one state.
