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Nothing, however, was guaranteed. Any extension would still require approval from both President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
New START remains the final major arms control agreement between Washington and Moscow. Originally signed in 2010 and extended in 2021, the treaty caps each nation at 1,550 deployed strategic nuclear warheads and includes verification measures such as inspections.
Together, the United States and Russia control roughly 85 percent of the world’s nuclear weapons. Once New START disappears, there will be no formal limits left at all.
Russian officials hinted they might accept a temporary extension, but frustration quickly surfaced. Moscow accused Washington of brushing aside its proposals, further complicating already tense relations.
Trump Draws a Line as Rubio Sounds the Alarm
Inside the Trump administration, enthusiasm for extending New START has always been limited.
From the White House perspective, the treaty reflects a Cold War mindset that ignores today’s reality. China’s rapidly expanding nuclear program operates outside any arms control framework, leaving America and Russia restrained while Beijing builds freely.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio spelled out the administration’s position in unmistakable terms just hours before the treaty’s expiration.
“Obviously the president’s been clear in the past that in order to have true arms control in the 21st century it’s impossible to do something that doesn’t include China because of their vast and rapidly growing stockpile,” Rubio said.
That statement reflects a core Trump principle: arms control only works if it applies to all major powers, not just America and Russia.
China, however, has no interest in joining.
President Trump spoke with Chinese President Xi Jinping earlier this week, but nuclear arms were conspicuously missing from the official summary of their discussion.
When pressed publicly, Beijing’s response was blunt and unapologetic.
“China’s nuclear strength is by no means at the same level with that of the U.S.,” Lin stated flatly.
“It is neither fair nor reasonable to ask China to join the nuclear disarmament negotiations at this stage.”
Why Beijing Refuses to Blink
China’s resistance is not emotional or ideological. It is strategic.
The United States currently maintains approximately 1,770 deployed nuclear warheads. Russia has roughly 1,718. China, by comparison, has only 24 deployed nuclear weapons based on the latest publicly available data.
That figure, however, masks the real trend.
Pentagon estimates show China’s total nuclear stockpile has nearly tripled since 2020 and now sits in the low 600s. Projections indicate Beijing could reach 1,000 warheads by 2030, all without any treaty limits or inspection requirements.
If New START rules applied to China today, Beijing’s arsenal would appear vastly smaller than those of Washington and Moscow. Chinese leaders argue that joining negotiations now would permanently lock in American and Russian dominance.
They also point to history. The United States and Russia built tens of thousands of nuclear weapons during the Cold War before negotiating reductions.
As Chinese officials have noted publicly, they see no reason to accept consequences for an arms race they did not start.
A Stark Choice for America
Trump and his advisers clearly understand the dilemma.
Extending New START even temporarily might slow escalation, but it also freezes a system that benefits adversaries who refuse to participate. Meanwhile, Russia has already suspended inspections amid the Ukraine conflict and increased military coordination with China.
Critics warn that this alignment could eventually undermine American security far more than the loss of any single treaty.
As New START expires, the United States faces a defining choice. Either continue honoring a bilateral agreement while China builds unchecked, or accept that the old framework no longer reflects reality.
The coming months will determine whether the world adapts to a new era of multipolar nuclear competition or drifts into an unregulated environment where treaties bind only those willing to follow them.
For now, China holds firm, Russia hedges its bets, and President Trump confronts a nuclear landscape that no longer plays by the old rules.
