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According to Bessent, the timing could not be better.
Speaking on Fox News, he said Trump’s policies “that we put in place last year are really starting to kick in now,” and early numbers suggest the impact is enormous.
House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith estimates Americans will receive roughly $370 billion in refunds this season, which is about $91 billion more than last year.
That represents a 26 percent jump in refunds nationwide.
For many households, that translates to roughly $1,000 more than they received last year, money that families badly need after years of runaway inflation and rising household debt.
Why Refunds Are Bigger This Year
The refund spike is not random.
Trump eliminated federal taxes on tips and overtime pay, expanded the Child Tax Credit to $2,200, and added a $6,000 deduction for seniors. He also made permanent the tax cuts originally passed in 2017, despite repeated warnings from Democrats that those cuts would “destroy the economy.”
Because the bill passed in July, workers spent much of 2025 having taxes withheld at higher Biden-era rates. Now that overpayment is coming back in one lump sum.
“We announced the tax season is now open. And we’re going to see substantial refunds for working Americans,” Bessent said on Hannity. “They’re going to change their withholding and have bigger take-home pay every two weeks, every month. So, it’s really an exciting time.”
Biden’s ‘Affordability’ Rhetoric vs Reality
While families struggled, Democrats spent years insisting the economy was healthy.
They claimed inflation was under control even as prices climbed month after month. Credit card balances exploded, savings accounts drained, and basic necessities became harder to afford for middle-class Americans.
When voters pushed back, Democrats pivoted to the word “affordability,” using it repeatedly without delivering results.
Trump called out that strategy directly.
“The word affordability is a Democrat scam,” Trump said at a December Cabinet meeting. “They say it, and then they go into the next subject, and everyone thinks they had lower prices.”
The reality on the ground told a very different story.
Trump Policies Deliver Measurable Relief
Bessent says Americans are now seeing tangible improvements because of policy changes, not political spin.
“Falling gas prices, easing rents and rising wages are signs that affordability is improving for working families,” he explained.
Unlike the Biden administration, Trump’s economic agenda is producing outcomes workers can actually feel: higher take-home pay, no taxes on overtime or tips, and record-setting tax refunds.
A Non-Inflationary Boom Ahead
Bessent is also looking beyond refund season.
He predicts “a boom in 2026,” describing it as “a non-inflationary boom” that “could really extend for several years.”
That prospect is exactly what Democrats fear most.
Republicans now have measurable results they can campaign on, while Democrats are left defending four years of economic decline.
Trump is scheduled to highlight these changes during upcoming stops in Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina, emphasizing that his policies are putting real money back into Americans’ pockets.
The White House is also expected to roll out details on new “Trump accounts,” which would seed $1,000 investment accounts for children born between 2025 and 2028.
Refund Checks Tell the Story Democrats Can’t Spin
The refund surge is a one-time correction caused by mid-year passage of the bill, but the tax cuts themselves are permanent.
That means higher incomes, stronger household balance sheets, and sustained financial relief.
Democrats spent years talking about affordability. Trump delivered it.
Over the next few months, millions of families will see that proof deposited directly into their bank accounts, and no amount of political messaging can undo the reality of those checks hitting.
