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Hilton’s rise is even more dramatic. The British-born political commentator, who spent six years at Fox News and once advised former UK Prime Minister David Cameron, announced his campaign after April’s poll. His immediate jump to 12 percent suggests Republicans may have a serious contender.
Former Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco is in third at 7 percent, while ex-Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa sits at 5 percent. Every other candidate remains below that mark.
“With Kamala Harris officially out of the race, Katie Porter has emerged as the Democratic frontrunner, increasing her support from 12 percent to 18 percent since the April Emerson poll,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “Steve Hilton, who was not in the race in April, has jumped to 12 percent, while the share of undecided voters has dropped from 54 percent to 38 percent over the summer.”
That 16-point drop in undecideds means voters are beginning to pick sides — and Porter and Hilton are becoming the two names to watch. California’s “jungle primary” system sends the top two vote-getters to the general election, regardless of party affiliation. That’s how Schiff faced Garvey in 2024, after spending millions on ads that critics said were designed to prop up the Republican and keep Porter out.
This year, the stakes are even higher. California Democrats have been rocked by two major crises: the devastating January wildfires and the June anti-ICE riots in Los Angeles. Critics say progressive leadership failed to deliver during both.
Porter’s platform is as far-left as ever, focusing on massive spending programs. “We have not done enough to focus on child care,” she told the San Francisco Chronicle, also pushing for expanded housing policies. As The Washington Post noted, her agenda centers on “lowering Californians’ costs and making housing more affordable, while strengthening protections for abortion rights, LGBTQ+ rights and immigrant rights.”
Hilton, on the other hand, is running as the anti-Newsom. In his announcement, he vowed to stop “the destruction of the California dream,” blaming “Democratic extremism and incompetence” for the state’s decline. His slogan — “Golden Again: Great Jobs, Great Homes, Great Kids” — promises practical solutions over political dogma.
Unlike celebrity-turned-politician Steve Garvey, Hilton brings both political experience and outsider appeal. Combined with growing frustration toward California’s Democratic leadership, that could give him a serious shot at winning in November.
California hasn’t had a Republican governor since Arnold Schwarzenegger, and his GOP credentials were often questioned. If the state’s voters are ready for change — and the Democrats’ nominee is as radical as Porter — 2026 might be the year the impossible happens.
