The Associated Press and other election forecasters called the contest for Hatcher about three hours after Tennessee polls closed.
The outcome was particularly noteworthy because Ogles had assembled some powerful conservative endorsements.
Trump threw his support behind the incumbent, while Ogles also pointed to backing from prominent Tennessee Republicans, including former Gov. Bill Lee.
But that support was ultimately not enough to carry him across the finish line.
Ogles entered Congress as an outspoken conservative and became a member of the House Freedom Caucus, the influential group of Republicans that frequently pushes House leadership toward more conservative positions.
His voting record also earned strong marks from conservative organizations.
Heritage Action awarded Ogles a 100 percent score for the relevant Congress as well as a perfect lifetime rating during his time in office.
Other conservative evaluations similarly placed Ogles near the top of the Republican conference.
Freedom Index ratings put him in the mid-to-upper 90s during previous sessions, while composite America First rankings repeatedly identified him as one of the House’s more conservative lawmakers.
That record, combined with Trump’s endorsement, made his defeat one of the more surprising Republican primary results of the cycle.
But Ogles was fighting on substantially different political terrain this time around.
Tennessee lawmakers approved a dramatically altered congressional map earlier this year after a U.S. Supreme Court ruling narrowed how the Voting Rights Act could be applied when constructing majority-minority districts.
The Republican-controlled state legislature subsequently redrew congressional boundaries, producing major changes around Nashville and reshaping the 5th District.
Those new boundaries altered the electorate Ogles needed to win.
Money also poured into the race.
The Invest in Tomorrow Coalition, a super PAC associated with clean-energy interests, reportedly spent approximately $2 million on advertising aimed at defeating Ogles.
Hatcher also gained a financial advantage during the closing stretch of the campaign, out-raising the incumbent as voters prepared to head to the polls.
The combination proved enough to overcome Ogles’ high-profile endorsements and conservative voting record.
Hatcher will now carry the Republican banner into November.
Unlike Ogles, whose political identity was closely connected to the conservative battles taking place in Washington, Hatcher campaigned heavily on his Tennessee agricultural background and experience running a state agency.
He is both a veterinarian and a multi-generation farmer.
Hatcher operates Hatcher Family Dairy near College Grove on property his family has worked since the early 1800s. He describes himself as a fifth-generation Tennessee farmer and a tenth-generation American farmer.
His government experience came through the Tennessee Department of Agriculture.
Lee appointed Hatcher as agriculture commissioner in 2019, a position he held until retiring in 2025.
During his tenure, the department dealt with issues ranging from rural economic development and protection of farmland to livestock and animal-health programs.
Hatcher leaned heavily into that background during the primary, presenting himself as a results-oriented conservative more interested in solving problems than generating political theater.
He also made clear that defeating a Trump-endorsed incumbent did not mean breaking with the president.
Hatcher campaigned as a supporter of Trump’s agenda, giving Republican voters a choice between two candidates who each sought to identify themselves with the president’s movement.
In the end, GOP voters chose the challenger.
The victory sends Hatcher into the general election against Democrat Chaz Molder, the mayor of Columbia.
Republicans will still be heavily favored to retain the seat.
The Cook Partisan Voting Index rates Tennessee’s 5th Congressional District at R+10, giving the eventual Republican nominee a substantial structural advantage heading into November.
That means Thursday’s Republican primary may prove to have been the decisive political battle for the district.
For Ogles, however, the result is a dramatic political reversal.
He had Trump’s endorsement, a deeply conservative congressional voting record, support from major Republican figures, and the advantages that normally accompany incumbency.
Hatcher nevertheless managed to defeat him by roughly six percentage points.
The upset also offers another reminder that even Trump’s endorsement is not an automatic ticket to victory in Republican primaries.
The president remains the dominant figure in the GOP, but local dynamics, redistricting, campaign spending, candidate backgrounds, and the makeup of individual districts can still scramble races that appear predictable on paper.
This time, Tennessee Republicans bucked the incumbent and handed Hatcher his ticket to November.
And one of the House Freedom Caucus’ more reliably conservative members is now headed for the exits.
