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The poll also reflects a changing dynamic within the broader Republican landscape. Earlier surveys conducted by The Center Square included Donald Trump Jr. as a potential candidate, where he consistently ranked as one of the strongest challengers to Vance. His absence from the latest survey appears to have redistributed some of that support, particularly benefiting Rubio.
In October polling, Trump Jr. drew 25% support compared to Vance’s 38%, marking one of the closest margins recorded. By March, his support had slipped to 19%, while Vance remained steady at 36%. With Trump Jr. now excluded due to his stated lack of interest in a 2028 run—though he has not fully ruled out future campaigns—the field has rebalanced in ways that appear to benefit established political figures.
Rubio, in particular, has shown incremental gains over time. Rising from just 5% in October to 9% in March, and now reaching 17%, his trajectory suggests growing traction among segments of the Republican base that were previously aligned elsewhere.
The polling memo from Noble Predictive Insights provides additional context for the candidate lineup used in this wave. Mike Noble, the firm’s founder, explained the reasoning behind excluding Trump Jr. from the current survey. He stated, “For this wave, we wanted the hypothetical Republican field to be more focused on candidates who seem more plausible as active contenders at this stage,” Mike Noble told the outlet.
Demographic breakdowns in the poll further highlight Vance’s broad appeal across multiple voter blocs. His strongest performance comes from younger Republicans, where he captures 43% of support among voters aged 18 to 29. That level of backing among younger voters stands out as one of the most decisive indicators in the survey.
Vance also performs strongly among voters who supported President Donald Trump in the previous election, as well as respondents in the Northeast. In both groups, he crosses the 40% threshold, reinforcing his strength among core Republican constituencies and geographically diverse regions.
Across income levels and educational backgrounds, Vance maintains consistent support, suggesting a wide coalition rather than reliance on a single demographic segment. He also leads across all racial categories tested in the survey, although his lowest support appears among Black respondents, where he registers 21%.
Within that group, Rubio and DeSantis follow behind, receiving 14% and 10% respectively. Even so, Vance remains ahead across all major subgroups measured.
Rubio’s support profile, meanwhile, shows more variation. He performs better among men (21%) than women (14%), and sees his strongest age performance among voters 65 and older, where he reaches 26%. However, his weakest showing comes from younger Republicans aged 18 to 29, where he drops to just 3%.
His support among Republican-leaning independents slightly exceeds his backing among self-identified Republicans, 20% compared to 17%, suggesting some appeal outside the core party base. Education also plays a role in his performance, with higher support among voters who have at least some college experience, particularly those with postgraduate education, where he reaches 22%.
Regionally, Rubio performs best in the Northeast at 20%, while his numbers are somewhat lower in the South (18%) and West (16%). Among Hispanic and Latino voters, he records his strongest demographic result at 24%, though still trails Vance, who holds 37% in that same group.
Despite pockets of competitiveness among other figures in the field, the overall picture remains consistent: Vance continues to dominate early Republican primary preferences. While nearly two years remain before voters begin formally deciding the 2028 nomination, the current data suggests a clear early consolidation around the vice president—at least for now.
