In a dramatic turn of events, former President Donald Trump has surged ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential race, marking the first time since August that he has taken the lead in a top election forecast. As the race for the White House nears its final stretch, polling data is showing a tightening contest that may be one of the closest elections in recent American history.
According to the latest projection from FiveThirtyEight, a well-known election forecaster, Trump now has a 52-100 chance of winning the election, surpassing Harris who was previously leading with a 58-100 chance. This shift in momentum comes just 18 days before Election Day, signaling potential trouble for the Democratic campaign as both candidates battle for dominance in key swing states.
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The polling landscape remains highly competitive, particularly in the seven major battleground states that will likely determine the outcome of the election: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. In each of these states, the margin between Trump and Harris is razor-thin—within 2 percentage points or less.
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