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When breaking down the numbers, Trump has taken a one-point lead over Harris in Arizona (46% to 45%) and a two-point lead in Pennsylvania (46% to 44%), while the other three states remain deadlocked. The poll, conducted from July 31 to August 8, surveyed 600 likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.
These findings are consistent with the RealClearPolitics polling average of battleground states, which also includes Nevada and Georgia. As of August 21, Trump holds a razor-thin 0.2% combined advantage over Harris across these seven states. Trump is leading in all states except Wisconsin and Michigan, where Harris has a slight edge, holding a one-point lead in Wisconsin and a two-point lead in Michigan.
Interestingly, Harris is performing better than President Joe Biden was in these battleground states before he exited the race last month. Trump had been steadily increasing his lead, holding more than a four-point advantage across the seven states in the RealClearPolitics average before Biden announced his withdrawal from the race on July 21.
Concerns about the tight race were voiced by CNN analyst and former Obama administration official Van Jones during the Democratic National Convention in Chicago on Monday night. “We don’t want to be tied. I don’t like being tied with Donald Trump because we’ve had now 20-plus days of positive press,” Jones said. “We should not be tied. We want to pull ahead. That’s our opportunity this week.”
Echoing this sentiment, CNN political reporter David Urban emphasized the urgency for the Harris campaign, saying, “This campaign, the Harris campaign, has been flawless for the past 28, 30 days, and it’s a tied race.” Jones quickly interjected, underscoring the gravity of the situation, “That’s scary. We’ve got to go.”
David Axelrod, a former strategist for Barack Obama’s presidential campaigns, also weighed in on the race, acknowledging that while Harris is outperforming Biden’s previous polling numbers, the race remains highly competitive. “Things have changed dramatically,” Axelrod said on CNN Sunday night. “But this is still a very competitive race. If the election were today, I’m not sure who would win. And I think it may well be President Trump because it’s an Electoral College fight.”
Brutal “Pocket Weapon” Stops Hearts (discounted for next 78)
Nationally, Harris holds a 1.6% lead over Trump in the RealClearPolitics polling average as of August 21. For context, on the same date in 2020, Biden led Trump by 7.6%, and in 2016, Hillary Clinton was ahead by 5.3%. Axelrod further noted, “Remember, Joe Biden won by 7 million votes nationally last time, and a margin of 45,000 votes, or 44,000 votes in the three closest battleground states combined.”
As the 2024 election draws closer, it is clear that Trump is in a far stronger position than he was four years ago. Despite Harris’ recent media boost, the race remains tight, with both candidates battling it out for critical Electoral College votes in the nation’s most competitive states.
