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“I think it’s very possible,” longtime Virginia political analyst Bob Holsworth said when asked about a potential split-ticket result. “I don’t know whether Jones has staunched the bleeding.”
Holsworth didn’t mince words about the impact of the scandal. “Clearly the issues would be harmful to him in the Richmond suburbs and in the Hampton Roads suburbs,” he said. “But from what I’m hearing even internally, even inside the Beltway up in [Northern Virginia], they’re very problematic.”
Before this controversy, the contest was already neck and neck. Miyares had the upper hand in fundraising while Jones held a slim edge in the polls. Now, those numbers are collapsing. A recent Washington Post/Schar School survey found the race tied at 46% each. Another poll from Virginia Commonwealth University showed Miyares ahead 45% to 42%. And a Quantus Insights poll put Jones behind by a staggering seven points.
The timing couldn’t be worse for Democrats. Party insiders are reportedly in “panic mode,” fearing that Jones’s implosion could drag down enthusiasm across the board — just as Republicans are gaining ground statewide.
For now, Jones’s only hope may be hitching his campaign to Spanberger’s popularity. The same VCU poll that showed him trailing also found Spanberger leading by 7 points, and the Post/Schar poll gave her a commanding 12-point advantage.
Democratic strategist Ben Tribbett admitted the problem plainly: “Part of the math equation here is that it’s a lot harder to lose on the coattails if your voters are not crossing over. I think to the extent that there’s anger at Jay, they’re not voting for him.”
Tribbett also warned that Miyares could face his own hurdle with “undervoters” — voters who skip down-ballot races entirely — though Holsworth said that trend might actually hurt Democrats more.
“This undervote is going to be fairly sizable,” Holsworth explained. “The Post poll said that there’s not a lot of people who are switching their vote from Jones to Miyares, but I think that’s more on the Democratic side. With independents, I think you’re going to see some Spanberger-Miyares votes.”
That crossover — where independents vote for Spanberger at the top but Miyares for attorney general — could spell disaster for Democrats’ plan to consolidate power. In Virginia, the attorney general operates independently from the governor, often serving as a check on executive overreach and managing legal battles with Washington.
If Miyares holds on, it would throw serious obstacles in Spanberger’s way. “It definitely slows down the administration,” Tribbett admitted. “Not always in a bad way, but usually in a bad way.”
This wouldn’t be the first time Virginians have split their ticket and divided state leadership. Former Democratic governors Mark Warner and Tim Kaine both served alongside Republican attorneys general — and quickly discovered how difficult governing can be when the other party holds the legal power.
With just days left until Election Day, Democrats are bracing for what could be another political upset in the Old Dominion. What started as a confident push to retake full control of Richmond has turned into a desperate scramble to stop a red resurgence — and it’s clear the panic is setting in.
