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This isn’t just a single poll fluke either. A separate survey from the Senate Leadership Fund last month showed Paxton with a 16-point lead, beating Cornyn 56% to 40%.
Even a Three-Way Race Can’t Save Him
If Cornyn was hoping for a split conservative vote to bail him out, that fantasy is fading fast. When Congressman Wesley Hunt is added to the mix in a three-way scenario, Paxton still dominates with 44%. Cornyn improves only slightly to 34%, while Hunt garners 19%.
The data is crystal clear: Texas voters are abandoning Cornyn, and no amount of triangulation can save him from the political reckoning ahead.
Years of Betrayal Catching Up Fast
Cornyn has been a fixture in the Senate since 2002, but his long record is now being held against him by a conservative base that feels betrayed. His involvement in bipartisan deals during the Biden era has only deepened distrust.
“Cornyn’s popularity in the state took a major hit during Joe Biden’s administration,” Breitbart’s Bradley Jaye reported.
Jaye’s analysis points to Cornyn’s role in advancing Biden-backed gun control efforts in 2022—legislation that funneled federal money into state “red flag” laws and made it harder for Americans to exercise their Second Amendment rights.
Backing gun restrictions in a pro-gun state like Texas isn’t just tone-deaf—it’s political suicide.
Jaye also noted Cornyn’s involvement in 2023 immigration legislation negotiations: “in 2023 he served as a key force behind the scenes negotiating the Senate’s pro-migration bill — although he ultimately voted against the legislation after McConnell gave Republicans his blessing to oppose it once it was clear the bill would die.”
But the damage was already done. Voters saw Cornyn working behind the scenes with Democrats on a plan that would have worsened the border crisis.
Outdated Politics in a Radical Era
Cornyn’s habit of bipartisan dealmaking may have played well in a bygone era, but today’s political climate is different. The Democrat Party of 2024 embraces open borders, disarmament, lawlessness, and radical social experiments on children. Negotiating with that agenda isn’t seen as principled—it’s seen as weakness.
Being a centrist when the Left is pushing cultural collapse doesn’t look like statesmanship. It looks like surrender.
Exit Ramp Looming for the Longtime Senator
With these brutal numbers piling up, insiders are already speculating that Cornyn may bow out before the 2026 primary humiliates him. At 73 and with over two decades in the Senate, retirement might be his only shot at saving face.
Texas conservatives want a warrior, not a wheeler-dealer. And Paxton—fresh off high-profile legal fights with the Biden administration—fits that mold perfectly.
The base has spoken. Cornyn’s political career is hanging by a thread. The old rules don’t apply anymore, and the grassroots are in no mood for compromise.
The writing’s on the wall. Texas voters are done with betrayal. And if Cornyn doesn’t step aside, they’re ready to replace him—ballot in hand.
