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This year, the response has been positive. In Nevada, a state where Democrats typically use early voting to build a strong advantage, early data shows Republicans are leading the charge. As of Tuesday, about 6,000 more Republicans than Democrats had already cast their ballots, as reported by the Associated Press. This could mark a significant shift in a state where Democrats have long relied on early voting to solidify their margins before Election Day.
Despite the encouraging turnout, analysts caution that early voting data only reveals the party registration of voters, not who they actually voted for. Additionally, the makeup of the early voting electorate can change quickly as more people cast their ballots, making it difficult to draw firm conclusions from early numbers. Historical comparisons are also tricky, especially considering that much of the Democratic early voting surge in 2020 was driven by pandemic-related concerns, a factor no longer in play this year.
With early voting still underway, some Democrats are attempting to temper Republican optimism. As noted by the Associated Press, Wisconsin, the last of the critical swing states, only began its early voting on Tuesday. So far, the 17.4 million early voters represent just 11% of the total turnout from the 2020 presidential election, meaning there is still a long way to go.
Republicans are well aware that early voting leads can evaporate if Election Day turnout doesn’t match expectations. Historically, the GOP has benefited from strong Election Day voting, a trend that has sometimes allowed them to overcome early deficits. However, this year could be different as the party looks to build momentum with its early voting strategy.
James Blair, political director for Trump’s campaign, shared optimistic data with the Associated Press, stating that the campaign has seen an increase in low-propensity voters casting early ballots. These are voters who typically don’t vote consistently but are showing up this year. “The starting point is, we’re in a strong spot,” Blair said.
Meanwhile, Democrats are maintaining their dominance in mail-in voting, particularly in battleground states like Pennsylvania. As of Tuesday, Democrats had returned around 350,000 more mail-in ballots than Republicans. Nevertheless, Republicans are closing the gap by showing up to vote early in person, which could be pivotal in the most competitive states.
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The latest polling data also offers encouragement for Trump supporters. According to Rasmussen Reports, Trump has expanded his lead over Vice President Kamala Harris, now holding a 50% to 47% advantage in their latest daily tracking poll. This marks a slight improvement for Trump, who had previously held a 49% to 47% lead.
In particular, Trump is making gains among key demographic groups. According to the Washington Examiner, the Rasmussen poll shows Trump leading Harris among Hispanic voters, 49% to 45%, and winning an impressive 32% of the black vote. This broadening support base could prove crucial as the election draws nearer.
Rasmussen has recently transitioned to daily tracking for the presidential election, providing a more up-to-date look at voter sentiment. The latest poll, which included a sample of 3,384 likely voters, has a margin of error of just plus or minus one point. The polling sample reflects the voter composition from the 2020 election, with 35% Democrats, 33% Republicans, and 32% independents.
As the early voting numbers continue to roll in, both parties will be closely monitoring turnout in swing states and battleground districts. For now, the GOP’s push to get voters to the polls early appears to be working, but with weeks still to go before Election Day, the final outcome remains uncertain.
