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President Donald Trump quickly took notice of the shift and framed it as a sign that the conflict may be nearing its end. Speaking late Thursday, Trump said the war that began on February 28 “should be ending pretty soon.” By Friday, he publicly thanked Iran for keeping the vital waterway open, signaling cautious optimism about ongoing developments.
At the same time, Trump made clear that pressure on Tehran is far from over. He emphasized that a U.S. naval blockade targeting Iranian ports would remain in “FULL FORCE” until a broader agreement is secured. The dual approach—acknowledging cooperation while maintaining leverage—appears to be a central feature of the administration’s strategy.
Diplomatic efforts are also gaining traction elsewhere in the region. A temporary ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon took effect Thursday evening, marking a rare pause in hostilities. The agreement, set to last ten days, comes after intensified clashes involving Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group operating in southern Lebanon.
Trump indicated that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun may soon be invited to Washington for talks. If it happens, the meeting could represent one of the first serious diplomatic engagements between the two nations in decades.
The U.S. State Department confirmed that discussions are underway aimed at establishing longer-term stability. Officials are focusing on core issues such as sovereignty, border enforcement, and the influence of armed factions within Lebanon. The presence of Hezbollah remains a major sticking point, with U.S. officials insisting that Lebanese authorities take meaningful action.
Despite the optimism reflected in market movements, analysts are warning that underlying risks have not disappeared. Energy experts caution that while the Strait of Hormuz may be open, actual oil flows remain constrained, and the broader supply picture is still tightening.
Analysts at ING pointed out that oil prices had already been trending downward in anticipation of a possible ceasefire extension between the United States and Iran. However, they stressed that real-world supply conditions tell a more complicated story.
“However, the physical market is becoming tighter every day that passes without a restart of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz,” ING analysts wrote.
They estimate that approximately 13 million barrels per day of oil supply have been affected due to rerouted pipelines and reduced tanker activity. That figure could climb higher if restrictions persist or if geopolitical tensions flare up again.
“The key upside risk for the market is that peace talks between the US and Iran break down,” the analysts said.
For now, markets are reacting to hope rather than certainty. The reopening signal from Iran has provided a temporary boost, but the path forward remains uncertain. With military pressure still in place and negotiations ongoing, the next moves from Washington and Tehran could determine whether this moment marks the beginning of the end—or just another pause in a volatile standoff.
