The movement is noteworthy, but the poll’s margin of error means the numbers should not automatically be interpreted as evidence of a dramatic realignment among New York voters.
Siena surveyed 1,144 likely voters between September 11 and September 17. The survey has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points for the core questions.
One of the biggest obstacles facing Komatireddy remains something that has little to do with her campaign message: name recognition.
More than two-thirds of likely voters surveyed said they had either never heard of the Republican candidate or did not know enough about her to offer an opinion. Her favorable rating stands at 17%, compared with 12% unfavorable.
James, by comparison, has considerably greater visibility statewide. Her favorability rating in the new poll stands at 51% favorable and 40% unfavorable.
The partisan breakdown also shows how firmly each candidate’s existing coalition remains in place.
Both James and Komatireddy receive support from more than 80% of voters within their respective parties. Independent voters, meanwhile, are much more closely divided, with James holding a 43% to 40% advantage among that group.
The regional numbers offer another important piece of the picture.
James continues to dominate in New York City, where Siena has her ahead 62% to 26%. Yet even there, the Democrat’s advantage has fallen considerably from August, when she led 71% to 20%.
James also maintains smaller advantages in the downstate suburbs and upstate New York, according to Siena.
For Komatireddy, the challenge now is converting voters who either have not heard of her or remain undecided about her into actual supporters.
The Republican candidate, a former federal prosecutor and Harvard Law School graduate, has emphasized issues including crime, public safety and government accountability during the campaign.
Her candidacy has also brought increased attention to James’ record as New York’s top law enforcement official.
The race has unfolded alongside James’ highly publicized legal battle with President Donald Trump. James’ office pursued the civil fraud case against Trump and his companies, which resulted in a major financial judgment before an appeals court later vacated the monetary award while leaving the underlying fraud findings intact.
Komatireddy has also criticized James over questions involving Medicaid fraud enforcement and other areas of state oversight, seeking to make the attorney general’s record a central issue for voters.
The broader statewide political landscape remains challenging for Republicans in the Siena survey.
In the governor’s race, Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul leads Republican Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman 50% to 41%. That contest has changed little since August, when Hochul led 49% to 39%.
The attorney general contest, however, has moved more substantially over the same period.
James’ 13-point advantage remains significant in the latest survey, but the reduction from an 18-point margin gives Komatireddy a more favorable set of numbers than she had just weeks ago.
The Republican now faces a straightforward campaign challenge: introduce herself to voters across New York while continuing to build support among those already paying attention to the race.
Siena pollster Steven Greenberg specifically pointed to Komatireddy’s lack of familiarity among voters as a central factor in the contest, noting that she will need to become better known in the remaining weeks of the campaign.
With Election Day approaching, the numbers provide a snapshot of a race in which the incumbent remains ahead while the Republican challenger has made measurable gains.
Whether that movement continues will depend in part on how effectively Komatireddy can increase her statewide profile before voters head to the polls.
For now, the Siena numbers show James maintaining a double-digit lead — but one that is smaller than it was in August.
