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Secret Military Knowledge Turned Into Nearly $410,000
Authorities claim Van Dyke earned approximately $409,881 after placing a series of bets on Polymarket, an online platform where users speculate on political and world events.
The newly unsealed indictment in the Southern District of New York alleges that Van Dyke had access to classified information connected to “Operation Absolute Resolve” beginning around December 8, 2025, and continuing through at least January 6, 2026.
As part of his military duties, prosecutors say he helped plan and execute the mission.
That operation reportedly ended in dramatic fashion during the early morning hours of January 3, 2026, when U.S. special forces captured Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, at a residence in Caracas, Venezuela.
President Donald Trump later publicly announced the successful mission.
Bets Placed Before the Public Knew
The indictment claims Van Dyke opened a Polymarket account on or about December 26, 2025.
From December 27 through the evening of January 2, prosecutors say he placed around 13 separate wagers totaling roughly $33,034.
Every one of those bets allegedly backed the same side — “YES.”
The markets reportedly included questions such as whether U.S. forces would enter Venezuela by January 31, whether Maduro would be removed by that date, whether America would invade Venezuela, and whether President Trump would invoke war powers against the regime.
Once the military action became public and the contracts resolved in favor of “YES,” prosecutors say the account generated a windfall approaching $410,000.
Attempted Cover-Up Alleged
The government also claims Van Dyke moved much of the money after the trades were settled.
According to prosecutors, he transferred most of the proceeds into a foreign cryptocurrency vault and later into a newly created online brokerage account.
Investigators further allege he tried to distance himself from the activity by asking Polymarket to erase his account on January 6, 2026.
In that request, prosecutors say he claimed he no longer had access to the email tied to the account.
Authorities also say he changed the email address connected to his cryptocurrency exchange profile to one created under another name.
Heavy Charges Filed
Van Dyke now faces a long list of serious federal charges.
Those include unlawful use of confidential government information for personal gain, theft of nonpublic government information, three counts of violating the Commodity Exchange Act, one wire fraud charge, and one count of making an unlawful monetary transaction.
If convicted, he could face severe prison time. Prosecutors say each commodities count and the monetary transaction charge carry maximum penalties of 10 years, while the wire fraud charge carries a potential 20-year sentence.
DOJ Sends Strong Warning
Federal officials made clear they view the allegations as a major betrayal of trust.
“Our men and women in uniform are trusted with classified information in order to accomplish their mission as safely and effectively as possible, and are prohibited from using this highly sensitive information for personal financial gain,” acting U.S. Attorney General Todd Blanche said after the charges were announced.
“Widespread access to prediction markets is a relatively new phenomenon, but federal laws protecting national security information fully apply.”
Bigger Questions Ahead
The case is likely to intensify scrutiny over online prediction markets, which have exploded in popularity in recent years.
While supporters argue these platforms reflect public sentiment, critics warn they may create dangerous incentives when users with inside access can potentially exploit confidential information.
Now prosecutors say one soldier may have done exactly that — and turned a secret military mission into a personal jackpot.
