The move is especially striking because Lautenberg backed Hochul herself. In July 2025, she contributed $1,000 to Hochul’s re-election campaign, part of Lautenberg’s longstanding financial support for Democrats.
Now, however, she is putting her name and network behind Hochul’s Republican challenger.
Lautenberg, 79, confirmed that she plans to hold a fundraiser for Blakeman. When asked about her decision, she pointed to a personal relationship rather than offering a lengthy political explanation.
“Bruce is a longtime friend and neighbor. He’s a great guy,” she said.
For Blakeman, the endorsement represents more than another campaign contribution. A prominent Democratic donor publicly crossing party lines could provide his campaign with an opportunity to argue that dissatisfaction with Hochul extends beyond the Republican base.
Blakeman welcomed the support.
“I am honored to have the support of Bonnie Lautenberg in my campaign for governor,” he said.
The development comes as Blakeman attempts to capitalize on signs that Hochul’s once-comfortable advantage is narrowing.
A new Siena College poll shows Hochul ahead of Blakeman by 10 percentage points among likely voters, 49% to 39%. That remains a substantial advantage for the incumbent, but it is dramatically smaller than the 20-point lead recorded in June, when Hochul stood at 52% compared with Blakeman’s 32%.
The August survey questioned 811 likely voters and carried a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. The poll was conducted August 3-6 as the candidates moved closer to Election Day.
“With less than three months till Election Day, Hochul holds a 10-point lead over Blakeman, 49-39%, not crossing the magic 50% mark. In June, among registered voters, Hochul’s lead was twice as large, 52-32%,” Siena pollster Steven Greenberg said.
Greenberg also pointed to the 2022 governor’s race as a reminder that an early or mid-campaign lead does not necessarily translate into a dominant Election Day victory.
“At this point four years ago, August 2022, when Hochul was just finishing her first year as governor, she led her opponent, former Republican Congressman (and current EPA Administrator) Lee Zeldin by 14 points, 53-39 percent, before going on to ultimately win the election by six points, 53-47 percent,” he said.
The numbers also reveal vulnerabilities for both candidates.
Hochul’s favorability rating remains underwater, with 49% of respondents viewing her unfavorably compared with 46% who view her favorably. Blakeman is less familiar to voters, with 33% rating him favorably and 26% unfavorably. Another 40% said they did not know enough about him to have an opinion.
That lack of familiarity could be both an obstacle and an opportunity for the Republican.
“Not surprisingly, both candidates are holding on to their partisan bases, as Hochul leads among Democrats 80-8 percent and Blakeman leads among Republicans 84-9 percent. Likely independent voters favor Blakeman by a narrow five-point margin, 45-40 percent,” Greenberg said. “Hochul holds a commanding 64-19 percent lead in New York City, but trails Blakeman in the downstate suburbs by eight points, 49-41 percent. They are running virtually even in upstate, as well as among men and with white voters; Hochul has large leads with women, Latinos and Black voters.”
Those regional numbers could become increasingly important. Hochul remains heavily favored in New York City, giving the Democrat a significant foundation of support. But Blakeman’s advantage in the suburbs puts a major portion of the electorate in play.
The race is also being shaped by voters’ concerns over affordability and other quality-of-life issues.
“While Hochul has a 10-point lead, likely voters think she’ll do a better job than Blakeman on increasing affordable housing by 16 points. That’s the good news for Hochul. The bad news is that voters think she’s better than Blakeman on four other issues — affordability, energy, safety, and immigrants – by between only one and seven points,” Greenberg said.
Perhaps most importantly for Blakeman, independent voters appear to view him more favorably on certain leadership characteristics.
“While independents give Hochul negative ratings on all four traits, they overwhelmingly say Blakeman is tough and also say he gets things done. Independents are divided on whether Blakeman is honest or in touch; they score him better on both than they do Hochul,” he said.
The Republican campaign will likely see those numbers as evidence that the race is becoming competitive, particularly outside New York City.
Still, the polling does not show Hochul in immediate danger. She remains ahead statewide and continues to hold commanding support in her strongest Democratic constituencies.
But the trajectory has changed sharply since June.
In June, Siena found Hochul leading Blakeman 52% to 32%. The latest poll puts the race at 49% to 39%, representing a 12-point swing in Blakeman’s direction.
Against that backdrop, Lautenberg’s decision to host a fundraiser for Blakeman could carry symbolic significance beyond the dollars raised. It gives the Republican candidate a prominent supporter with deep Democratic connections at a moment when his campaign is attempting to broaden its coalition.
For Hochul, the challenge is clear: maintain her overwhelming advantage in New York City while preventing Blakeman from turning his strength in the suburbs into a statewide breakthrough.
For Blakeman, the path forward is equally straightforward — consolidate Republican voters, continue making gains with independents and persuade voters who still do not know much about him.
With Hochul still below the 50% threshold and the Republican challenger cutting deeply into her previous advantage, the race is showing signs of becoming far more competitive than it appeared only weeks ago.
And now, one of the Democratic Party’s own prominent donors is helping Blakeman make his case.
