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Another controversial aspect of the Biden-Harris immigration approach has been the expanded use of “Temporary Protected Status” (TPS). This policy enables the executive branch to grant legal status to large groups of migrants with the stroke of a pen, circumventing Congress. Critics argue that this action bypasses constitutional law and could lead to a drastic increase in the nation’s migrant population.
If elected in November, Vice President Harris is expected to continue, if not escalate, these policies. A report from the Brookings Institute anticipates that immigration would soar under her administration. The analysis outlines multiple scenarios for future immigration flows and projects that, in the most extreme case, 3.7 million migrants would enter the U.S. in 2025 alone. The total number of new migrants could reach 12.3 million by the end of her first term in 2028.
“We expect net immigration to be significantly higher under a Harris administration than a second Trump administration,” the report states. In contrast, the report describes a much different outcome under a potential Trump presidency. According to the study, Trump’s policies could result in negative net migration, with the number of immigrants decreasing by 740,000 in 2025 and 230,000 in 2026. Over his hypothetical second term, net migration would remain relatively low, accumulating to around 410,000.
One of the most alarming conclusions of the Brookings analysis is that, in 2025, the number of migrants entering the U.S. could equal the number of native births. The study also projects that Harris’s immigration policies would increase the U.S. population by an additional 15 million people during her first four years in office.
This significant demographic shift is expected to have profound economic and social implications. Critics argue that Harris’s policies prioritize an influx of cheap labor over the well-being of American workers. Business interests, which often benefit from lower labor costs, may welcome this increase in the migrant workforce. However, some argue that this approach ignores the potential wage increases for American citizens and the long-term benefits of focusing on raising native birth rates.
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The Brookings report, which appears to favor the influx of new workers, suggests that the economic impact of Harris’s immigration policies could be positive for certain sectors. “Because immigrants who come to the U.S. between 2025 and 2034 would require equipment and infrastructure to effectively do their jobs, we expect… investors would receive greater capital income as a result,” the report states.
Ultimately, the debate over immigration is likely to be a central issue in the upcoming presidential election. The Brookings analysis offers a stark contrast between the potential policies of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. While the report suggests that a Harris presidency would lead to an influx of millions of new migrants, a second Trump term could see a drastic reduction in immigration. How this issue resonates with voters may determine the future direction of U.S. immigration policy and the nation’s economic landscape.
