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Dudley pulled in 48 percent support compared to Kotek’s 44 percent, putting the Republican ahead of the incumbent governor in a state Democrats have dominated for decades.
Another Republican contender, state Sen. Christine Drazan, also showed surprising strength. In a separate hypothetical matchup, Drazan tied Kotek at 45 percent apiece, signaling broad dissatisfaction with Democrat leadership rather than support for just one GOP challenger.
The numbers paint an even darker picture for Kotek when voters were asked about the direction of the state.
According to the survey, 58 percent of respondents believe Oregon is headed in the wrong direction.
Even more alarming for Democrats, a majority of voters now view Kotek negatively. The poll found 53 percent of voters hold an unfavorable opinion of the governor, while just 33 percent view her favorably.
Those are devastating numbers for an incumbent heading into a difficult election cycle.
For years, Oregon Democrats have governed with near-total control, particularly in Portland and surrounding urban areas. But many residents now say the progressive policies pushed by state leadership have produced disastrous consequences.
Rising homelessness, public drug use, retail theft, and growing frustration over weak law enforcement have become central political issues across the state. Meanwhile, working families continue struggling under high living costs and economic uncertainty.
Republicans believe voters are reaching a breaking point.
Dudley’s rise is especially notable because he comes from outside the traditional political class.
The former Portland Trail Blazers center spent 16 seasons in the NBA before transitioning into the private sector after retirement in 2003. He later co-founded Filigree Wealth Advisors and went on to serve as chairman and CEO of Diabetomics, a medical diagnostics company.
Beyond business, Dudley also founded the Chris Dudley Foundation, which supports children living with diabetes. He additionally served as treasurer for the NBA Players Association.
Unlike many career politicians, Dudley is attempting to present himself as an outsider focused on practical solutions rather than ideological battles.
That message may be resonating with Oregon voters exhausted by years of political dysfunction.
The timing of the poll is also significant.
Oregon Republicans are preparing for the May 19 primary election, which will determine who advances to challenge Kotek in the general election under the state’s vote-by-mail system.
Pollsters did not test another prominent Republican candidate, state Rep. Ed Diehl of Scio, in the head-to-head matchup against Kotek.
Still, the broader takeaway from the survey is unmistakable: Democrats can no longer assume Oregon voters will automatically fall in line.
The state’s political history shows just how dramatic such a shift would be.
Oregon has not elected a Republican to statewide office since 1994, when Jack Roberts won the labor commissioner race. The last Republican governor was Victor Atiyeh, who won reelection in 1982.
Now, more than four decades later, Republicans appear to sense an opportunity they haven’t had in generations.
Whether Dudley can maintain momentum through the general election remains to be seen. Democrats still maintain structural advantages in voter registration and fundraising.
But one thing is becoming increasingly clear.
Voters in Oregon may finally be willing to reconsider the one-party rule that has dominated the state for years.
