The situation has infuriated conservatives who watched establishment Republicans spend millions during the primary, only to suddenly discover that their pockets were empty once Republican voters chose Paxton.
And according to Sen. John Kennedy, President Donald Trump may ultimately be the person expected to fill the financial void.
Senate Republicans Say the Texas Money Isn’t There
Kennedy acknowledged during an appearance on Fox News Sunday that Senate Republicans “don’t have the money budgeted for Texas.”
That admission is remarkable considering what happened only months earlier.
Cornyn and his allies had substantial resources available while attempting to defeat Paxton during the Republican primary. But voters rejected the longtime incumbent anyway, handing Paxton a commanding victory.
Now the financial picture heading into the general election looks dramatically different.
Federal Election Commission filings through June 30 showed Paxton with approximately $1.75 million in cash on hand. His Democratic opponent, Texas state Rep. James Talarico, reportedly had roughly $21.5 million.
The advertising disparity is similarly striking.
Since June, Democratic spending on Texas Senate advertising has reportedly reached approximately $31.5 million, compared with only $4.7 million on the Republican side.
That leaves the GOP nominee facing a well-funded Democrat without the massive institutional support Republicans normally expect in a competitive Senate contest.
Cornyn Isn’t Rallying Behind the Republican Who Beat Him
The bad blood from the primary has apparently not disappeared either.
Rather than immediately closing ranks behind Paxton, Cornyn has continued criticizing his former opponent.
Cornyn called Paxton “lazy,” questioned his fundraising abilities and said he “basically is not offering a very compelling case for his election.”
Those are extraordinary comments about the Republican nominee seeking to keep Cornyn’s former Senate seat in GOP hands.
Cornyn has also indicated that his fundraising operation will help Republican Senate candidates elsewhere rather than concentrating on Paxton’s campaign in Texas.
For grassroots conservatives, the episode raises an obvious question: If Republican leaders could mobilize donors and political resources to defeat Paxton in the primary, why can’t they mobilize those same resources to defeat a Democrat in November?
Democrats Have a Candidate Conservatives Won’t Mistake for a Centrist
Talarico has attracted national attention with comments on immigration, abortion and Christianity that virtually guarantee those issues will become central to Republican attacks against him.
The Democrat has described ICE as a “secret police force.”
He has also argued that “the Bible is silent on abortion” and told a congregation that “God is non-binary.”
Those statements give Republicans plenty of material for portraying Talarico as far outside the political mainstream of Texas.
But having a potent political message matters considerably less if Republicans lack the money necessary to put that message in front of millions of voters.
Conservatives Have Seen This Movie Before
For Paxton’s supporters, the situation brings back memories of Arizona’s 2022 Senate election.
Republican Blake Masters captured his party’s nomination with Trump’s endorsement and major financial backing from billionaire Peter Thiel.
But during the general election battle against Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly, the Senate Leadership Fund canceled nearly $10 million in planned television advertising in Arizona.
Masters ultimately lost by roughly five percentage points.
Afterward, Masters publicly blamed Senate Republican leadership for abandoning the contest.
“Had he chosen to spend money in Arizona, this race would be over. We’d be celebrating a Senate majority right now.”
The Paxton controversy is feeding similar suspicions among grassroots Republicans: establishment organizations will spend aggressively when trying to defeat candidates they dislike during Republican primaries, but become far more cautious once those candidates actually win.
Whether that accusation is fair will ultimately depend on what Republican organizations do between now and Election Day.
Right now, however, Paxton appears to need outside help.
Trump Steps Into the Fight
Trump has already begun assisting the Republican nominee.
The president traveled to Houston for an RNC fundraiser aimed at helping Paxton strengthen his campaign finances.
“We’re trying to get help from all over the country,” Paxton told Fox News.
Kennedy, meanwhile, pointed toward Trump’s enormous fundraising operation as a potential solution.
“The president says he has $850 million in his campaign accounts. That’s a lot of jack,” he said.
That may be true.
But it also underscores the uncomfortable position Senate Republicans have created for themselves.
After a bruising primary battle consumed millions of dollars, the Republican nominee in one of America’s most important Senate races is now looking to Trump and donors across the country for reinforcements.
Texas Suddenly Looks Competitive
The stakes extend well beyond Paxton and Cornyn.
The Cook Political Report has reportedly moved the Texas Senate contest into toss-up territory, a startling development for a state Republicans have dominated in statewide elections for decades.
Texas Senate races have occasionally become close. Ted Cruz, for example, defeated Democrat Beto O’Rourke by only 2.6 percentage points in 2018.
But Republicans cannot afford to assume Texas will automatically remain red while Democrats enjoy an enormous financial advantage.
That is precisely why the aftermath of the Cornyn-Paxton primary deserves scrutiny.
Republican voters made their decision. They rejected a four-term senator and chose Paxton as their nominee.
The primary is over.
Whatever Senate Republicans thought of Paxton before that vote, their choice now is much simpler: help their nominee win or risk watching Democrats capture a Senate seat in Texas.
The grassroots delivered its verdict on the Republican establishment in May.
Now the establishment must decide whether defeating Democrats matters more than settling old scores.
