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Translation? The establishment sees the writing on the wall—and they’re terrified.
Cornyn, who has held his Senate seat for over two decades, failed in his recent bid to become Senate Majority Leader. Now, he’s fighting to hold onto his seat as grassroots conservatives rally behind Paxton, who has built a loyal following by taking on Big Tech, voter fraud, and the Biden administration’s radical policies head-on.
Top GOP insiders claim that if Paxton runs, it could drain at least $100 million from the party’s war chest as it’s forced to defend Cornyn in a bruising primary battle. They’re also fretting over the possibility that the internal fight could open the door for Democrats to steal a win in deep-red Texas—especially if former Rep. Colin Allred decides to make another run.
Thune isn’t hiding his allegiance. “I’m hoping that in the end, he can,” Thune said when asked if Trump might endorse Cornyn. “Obviously we’re supporting Sen. Cornyn. He’s done a great job for Texas and for the country. And we need him back.”
But rank-and-file Republican voters aren’t buying it. Recent polling shows Cornyn trailing Paxton by a stunning 25 points—53 percent to 28 percent—in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup. And when voters are given more background on the candidates, Paxton’s lead only grows wider.
It’s no secret there’s no love lost between these two Texas heavyweights. Cornyn openly backed the Democrat-led impeachment effort against Paxton last year, fueling accusations that he sided with the left and betrayed his own party. Paxton was ultimately acquitted, but not before enduring a smear campaign spearheaded by his own party’s establishment.
Although Paxton hasn’t officially launched his campaign, his recent remarks suggest it’s not a matter of if—but when. During a Turning Point USA event in December, a supporter asked if he planned to run against Cornyn.
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“How about if I say this? Not yet,” Paxton responded. “I am praying about it. We are looking at that.”
That subtle hint sent shockwaves through Republican circles. MAGA voters are fired up, and the grassroots energy is already tilting the battlefield.
For the old guard in Washington, the warning couldn’t be clearer: the era of unchallenged incumbents is over. If Cornyn wants to keep his seat, he’ll have to fight for it—and this time, the voters get the final say, not the party bosses.
Stay tuned. Texas might be about to deliver the biggest political showdown of 2026.
