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“So the bottom line is very few Americans think the country is on the right track at this particular point. It tracks much more with when the incumbent party loses than with [when] it wins. In fact, I went back through history, there isn’t a single time in which 28% of the American public thinks the country is going on the right track in which the incumbent party actually won,” Enten said.
The “wrong track” number at 72% suggests that Americans overwhelmingly feel that things aren’t going well under the current administration, a perception that historically bodes poorly for incumbents.
Alongside Americans’ overall dissatisfaction, Joe Biden’s personal approval rating presents another red flag. Biden’s approval stands at 40%, as per RealClearPolitics, a low figure for an incumbent seeking reelection. Approval ratings below 45% often indicate a vulnerable incumbent; at 40%, the rating suggests an uphill battle for Democrats.
Enten emphasized the significance of this number, noting that low approval ratings for the president suggest voters may seek a change. Historically, low presidential approval numbers correlate with shifts in power, particularly during times of economic uncertainty or social unrest. Biden’s rating, combined with the “wrong track” perception, paints a bleak picture for his reelection chances.
Enten’s final point centers on voter registration trends in battleground states, particularly Pennsylvania. While Pennsylvania has long been a Democratic stronghold, Republicans have made significant gains in recent years. In 2021, Democrats held a voter registration edge of 630,000 in Pennsylvania, but recent numbers show that margin has nearly halved, sitting at just 300,000.
“Republicans are putting more Republicans in the electorate, the Democratic number versus the Republican number has shrunk, and so the bottom line is if Republicans win come next week, Donald Trump wins come next week, the signs all along will have been obvious,” Enten continued.
Pennsylvania isn’t the only swing state where Republicans are seeing gains. Similar trends are playing out in other battlegrounds, increasing the Republican voter pool and potentially tipping the scales in favor of Trump. With more Republican voters registered, GOP candidates are likely to benefit from increased support in critical states.
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Political analyst James Carville’s famous line, “it’s the economy, stupid,” remains a key phrase in political strategy circles. This year, however, Enten suggests that the deciding factor isn’t just the economy but the overall political environment. Voters are expressing dissatisfaction with Biden’s handling of key issues, from inflation to crime rates, and as Enten’s analysis shows, this sentiment may result in a major shift on Election Day.
“If Republicans win come next week – Donald Trump wins come next week, the signs all along will have been obvious,” Enten told CNN’s John Berman.
With Election Day imminent, Enten’s words are a stark reminder of the indicators that political analysts will be watching. Whether it’s the low “right track” numbers, Biden’s approval rating, or voter registration trends, the signs appear to be pointing toward a Trump victory. As Americans head to the polls, they may ultimately confirm that Enten’s warnings were indeed prescient.
