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On Thursday, the Brazil-based AtlasIntel released its latest findings, which surveyed likely voters between October 30 and October 31. The poll, with a margin of error ranging from two to four percentage points across several key states, further underscored Trump’s dominance in the battleground landscape. In North Carolina, Trump holds a lead of 3.7 percentage points, capturing 50.7% of the vote compared to Harris’s 47%. Arizona saw an even wider margin, with Trump leading Harris by 4.2 points, a promising indicator for the Republican nominee.
Trump’s edge extended to Nevada, where he holds a 3.6-point advantage, and to Georgia, where he maintains a 2.3-point lead. Yet in the Rust Belt, the race remains exceptionally tight. Trump holds a narrow advantage in Michigan, leading Harris 49.3% to 48.7%. In Pennsylvania, a state consistently monitored by multiple pollsters, Trump has a slight 1.5-point lead.
Interestingly, Wisconsin remains the lone state showing a marginal preference for Harris. The Vice President leads there by only two-tenths of a percentage point, underscoring just how tight the competition is in states traditionally known for swinging between parties.
AtlasIntel’s analysis on X emphasized the implications of these results for the electoral map: “With these results, Trump would win the Electoral College, with 287 votes against Harris’ 226. The Vice-President would have to overcome the Republican’s lead in Pennsylvania in order to have a chance of victory,” AtlasIntel posted, underlining the high stakes in Pennsylvania as critical to Harris’s path to potential victory.
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With AtlasIntel standing as the sole polling agency in the RealClearPolitics average to publish updated numbers on Thursday, Trump’s lead in the national average has edged up to 0.5 points, a small yet significant bump as the race enters its final phase. As the data unfolds, AtlasIntel’s polling suggests Trump’s trajectory might be gaining momentum among voters who are increasingly leaning toward a Republican victory in crucial states.
