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Trump’s renewed energy in the polls comes after a period where Harris appeared to hold steady in several swing states. Earlier in September, Harris had taken the lead in Silver’s polling aggregation model, buoyed by strong performances in crucial battlegrounds. However, as Silver had cautioned, the dynamics of the race were likely to change as Election Day drew closer.
“There’s a good chance that the lead will continue to shift back and forth, akin to a 110-109 basketball game late in the fourth quarter,” Silver noted in his latest update.
Harris had gained significant traction following President Joe Biden’s exit from the race and his subsequent endorsement of her candidacy. At the time, she quickly surged in national polls and built a strong presence in swing states as the official Democratic nominee.
However, as Election Day nears, Harris’ momentum appears to have stalled. Polls suggest that Trump is making gains both nationally and in key battleground states, where voters are increasingly considering his economic message.
Polling data from The Hill/Decision Desk HQ shows Harris still maintaining a small lead overall, with 49.8% of voter support compared to Trump’s 47.1%. Yet, as Trump’s lead in Silver’s model demonstrates, the race remains exceptionally close, with both candidates fighting for every percentage point.
Silver commented on this tight race last week, noting, “I’ve never seen an election in which the forecast spent more time in the vicinity of 50/50, and I probably never will.” He predicted that the race will remain a toss-up until the very end, with Election Day on November 5th likely to be the final determinant of the outcome.
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The close race has prompted both campaigns and their allies to ramp up their efforts in swing states, especially Pennsylvania. The Sentinel Action Fund, a conservative Super PAC, recently launched a digital ad campaign targeting low-propensity voters in the Keystone State. The ad, which highlights Harris as “always a radical,” is part of a broader effort to portray her as out of step with moderate voters.
The ad draws attention to Harris’ past progressive positions, despite her more moderate rhetoric in recent months. It emphasizes that Harris has claimed her “values” haven’t changed, closing with the line: “Kamala Harris: once a radical, always a radical.”
Jessica Anderson, president of the Sentinel Action Fund, accused Harris and Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey of misleading voters about their records. “Kamala Harris and Bob Casey are being dishonest with Pennsylvania voters about their radical stances on everything from fracking to the border crisis,” Anderson said.
She continued, “Looking at their records, Kamala Harris and Bob Casey have spent their time in office pushing for the reckless federal spending packages that have led to the historic inflation rates and unaffordable home prices in the Commonwealth.” Anderson also pointed to their role in the nation’s ongoing border crisis, citing the rise of fentanyl in Pennsylvania communities.
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Anderson concluded by warning that Harris and Casey would continue to pursue policies that harm Pennsylvanians if re-elected. “Voters will not be fooled by these promises of shifting policies, and they will take to the ballot box to make their voices heard in one of the most important battleground states of the 2024 election.”
With Pennsylvania playing a critical role in the path to the White House, the outcome in this state could decide not only the presidency but control of the U.S. Senate as well. As Anderson noted, electing Trump and Republican allies like Dave McCormick could be crucial for shaping America’s future.
As Election Day approaches, the back-and-forth nature of the polls underscores the uncertainty surrounding the 2024 race. Trump’s slight lead in Nate Silver’s model signals the fluidity of the race and suggests that both campaigns will be fighting for every vote in the final stretch.
Whether Trump can maintain this momentum or if Harris can regain the edge remains to be seen, but one thing is certain: this race is far from over.
