In a significant shift just weeks ahead of the 2024 presidential election, former President Donald Trump has narrowly overtaken Vice President Kamala Harris in Nate Silver’s latest prediction model. According to Silver’s Thursday update, Trump now holds a slight lead, securing 50.2% of the vote compared to Harris’ 49.5%. This marks Trump’s first lead in the model since mid-September.
While the race is still considered a virtual tie, Silver highlighted the importance of Trump’s recent surge. “However nominal, it’s Trump’s first lead in our model since Sept. 19,” Silver wrote on his website, the Silver Bulletin.
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Just a day prior, Harris held a narrow advantage over Trump, with 50.3% to his 49.4%. But new polling data entered the system on Thursday helped tip the scales in Trump’s favor. According to Silver, key polls, such as a Fox News survey showing Trump with a two-point lead and a Georgia poll where Trump also came out on top, contributed to his rising momentum.
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