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“It’s the center of the universe,” said Republican activist Cliff Maloney, emphasizing the state’s crucial role in deciding the election.
Trump, understanding the significance of Pennsylvania, has held more rallies there than in any other state since Harris became the Democratic nominee. Meanwhile, Obama has taken an active role in helping Harris close the gap. Pennsylvania was the first stop on his campaign trail for her, where he held a rally in Pittsburgh and scolded certain voters, particularly Black men, for considering a vote for Trump.
The competition in Pennsylvania is nothing short of a political arms race. U.S. Senator J.D. Vance (R-OH), a key Trump ally, has made more campaign stops in the state than in any other swing state. Republicans, along with political action committees (PACs), have committed a staggering $350 million to television ads in Pennsylvania — more than in any other state.
“If we win Pennsylvania, we win the whole thing,” Trump boldly declared at a rally, underscoring the high stakes in the Keystone State.
Polling data and expert analysis suggest that Pennsylvania is likely to be the tipping point that decides the next president. In the 2020 election, President Joe Biden narrowly won the state by just 81,000 votes. However, Democrats are now facing new challenges as they look to maintain their grip on Pennsylvania, with some worrying that Harris lacks the working-class appeal Biden had in 2020.
Trump’s history in Pennsylvania is significant. In 2016, he became the first Republican since the 1980s to carry the state, winning by a margin of 44,292 votes. At that time, Democrats held a substantial voter registration advantage of over 910,000. However, since then, that advantage has shrunk dramatically, now down to just 325,000 registered voters.
In both the 2020 election and the 2022 midterms, Democrats leveraged a significant advantage with mail-in voting, a strategy that proved decisive in overcoming Republican turnout on Election Day. But in 2024, Republicans are making inroads in this area. Mail-in ballot requests in Pennsylvania are now 8.5% more Republican than in previous years, signaling a shift in GOP strategy.
The GOP’s response to Democrats’ dominance with mail-in ballots has been aggressive. Led by efforts like Cliff Maloney’s “Pennsylvania Chase,” a coordinated team of Republican activists is going door-to-door across the state to secure mail-in ballots from registered Republicans. The goal isn’t to completely catch up to the Democrats’ numbers but to narrow the gap.
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“If we can get it to 33%, we cannot lose statewide. And we end the mail-in-ballot domination by Democrats,” Maloney explained, showcasing the confidence among Republicans.
With just weeks to go until Election Day, Pennsylvania remains a virtual tie. Trump holds a razor-thin .4% lead over Harris in the RealClearPolitics polling average, and both campaigns are bracing for a fight to the finish.
Veteran journalist Mark Halperin, who recently broke the news of Biden’s decision to exit the race, noted that internal Democrat polling shows Harris trailing in Pennsylvania. This has raised alarms among Democrats, as losing Pennsylvania could spell the end of their hopes of retaining the White House.
As both Trump and Harris await the results, all eyes will be on Pennsylvania, where the outcome could shape the future of the nation for years to come. The battle for the Keystone State is not just a fight for electoral votes — it’s a fight for the very soul of the 2024 election.
